Program: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses (The 81st AMS Annual Meeting)

« Collapse View

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 13 January 2001

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 13 January 2001

Workshop Registration

Sunday, 14 January 2001

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 14 January 2001

Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 14 January 2001

Conference Registration

Monday, 15 January 2001

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Registration Continues Through Thursday, 18 January

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Session 1

Winter storms: basic research (Invited Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

Organizer: Melvyn A. Shapiro, NCAR

8:30 AM

1.1

Forecasting Heavy Precipitation in Winter Storms

Lance F. Bosart, Univ of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

9:00 AM

1.2

EXTREME WEST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENTS

Bradley R. Colman, NOAA/NWS, Seattle, WA

9:30 AM

1.3

The Washington D.C. Snowstorm of 25 January 2000: What Have We Learned from the Storm

Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Session 2

Winter storms: Prediction, Impacts and Responses (Invited Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

Organizer: Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin

10:30 AM

2.1

Data Assimilation: Current Status and Outlook for the Future

Thomas W. Schlatter, NOAA/ORL/FSL, Boulder, CO

11:00 AM

2.2

Societal Impacts of Weather Forecasts: A Weather Channel Perspective

Paul J. Kocin, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA

11:30 AM

2.3

Precipitation Extremes: Implications for Forecasters and Users

T. R. Stewart

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Lunch Break

1:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Poster Session 1

Winter Storms (Poster Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

P1.1

Geography of Blizzards in the Conterminous United States, 1959–2000

P1.2

A Climatology of Heavy Snowfall Events in Northwest Missouri: The Synoptic and Dynamic Characteristics of Heavy Snowfall

Michael J. Bodner, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and P. A. Browning, A. R. Lupo, and C. L. Berger

P1.3

The patterns associated with light, moderate and heavy snowfall events at Flagstaff, Arizona

P1.4

On the predictability of rainfall patterns

P1.5

NCEP short-range model guidance for the 24–26 January 2000 east coast winter storm

P1.6

Process partitioning of rainfall enhanced by coastal orography

Allen B. White, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, P. J. Neiman, D. A. Kingsmill, and P. O. G. Persson

P1.7

Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events over Canada

Xuebin Zhang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and W. D. Hogg and É. Mekis

P1.8

Modeling and Visualization of a Record Meso-Snowfall Event in Jackson, Mississippi

Paul J. Croft Jr., Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and J. Hafner, R. S. Reddy, and P. J. Fitzpatrick

P1.9

Case study and mesoscale modeling of the 28 April to 1 May 1999 heavy rain event over southeast Colorado

Paul Wolyn, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO

P1.10

The Genesee Valley Blizzard of 4 March 1999: An Analysis Of Forcing Mechanisms

Jose A. Maliekal, SUNY, Brockport, NY; and S. Rochette, J. Caughel, R. Ballentine, and A. Stamm

P1.11

Effects of mountain representation and nonhydrostatic dynamics in a case of orographic precipitation

P1.12

Forecast Skill of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 Mesoscale Model during the heavy precipitation event of 23–24 February 1998 in Southern California

Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and L. M. V. de Carvalho, B. Bower, and D. Danielson

P1.13

Improving the Understanding and Prediction of Heavy Rain in Land-falling Pacific Winter Storms: The CALJET and PACJET Experiments

F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and D. W. Reynolds, P. O. G. Persson, W. A. Nuss, D. A. Kingsmill, Z. Toth, and W. Blier

P1.14

Orographic precipitation enhancement in the coastal mountains of California during the CALJET field experiment

Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, A. B. White, D. A. Kingsmill, P. O. G. Persson, and D. Gottas

P1.15

Predictability of the 24–25 January 2000 Snow Storm with respect to model grid resolution and initial state

Fuqing Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

P1.16

The microphysical structure of extreme precipitation

Remko Uijlenhoet, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. A. Smith and M. Steiner

P1.17

Predictability of mesoscale quantitative precipitation

Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller

P1.18

Diabatic Potential Vortiticity Modification, the Low-Level Jet, and Moisture Transport in Cyclones

P1.19

Improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasts using a new microphysical parameterization

P1.20

Improved Rainfall Detection Using High Frequency Observations from the NOAA Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)

Ralph R. Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng

P1.21

An analysis of significant WSR-88D precipitation underestimation over the Palmer Divide: 28 April to 1 May 1999 heavy rain event

Kathleen L. Torgerson, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO

P1.22

Forecast Experiments for the 24–26 January 2000 East Coast storm using the NCEP Eta Model

P1.23

A Real-Time Precipitation Monitoring Algorithm—Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPE SUMS)

Jonathan J. Gourley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Zhang, R. A. Maddox, C. M. Calvert, and K. W. Howard

P1.24

Using low frequency Predictors for Downscaling to mid-latitude precipitation: two case studies in mountainous regions

Allan Frei, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

P1.25

Application of the NCEP/EMC Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to Predicting Extreme Precipitation Events

M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du

P1.26

Choosing the Optimal Configuration of a Mixed-Physics Ensemble for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and D. J. Stensrud

P1.27

Statistical Analysis of Global Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Sanja Perica, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake, M. Mullusky, and D. J. Seo

P1.28

Hydrologic Re-Calibration Requirements for Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts Following NWP Model Changes

John Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

P1.29

Rainfall Assimilation and Numerical Forecast of the 25 January 2000 Snow Storm

Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and Q. Zhao, Q. Xiao, and S. Peng

P1.30

Anticipating Heavy Rainfall: Forecast Aspects

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart

P1.31

A review of the scientific and operational challenges of short-range precipitation prediction over the Great Basin

P1.32

The National Precipitation Verification Unit (NPVU): Operational implementation

Brett E. McDonald, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. M. Graziano

P1.33

Extending the Precipitation Map Offshore Using Daily and 3-Hourly Combined Precipitation Estimates

George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and W. R. S. Curtis

P1.34

Accounting for Uncertainty in Short Term Deterministic Precipitation Forecasts

Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake, S. Perica, and D. J. Seo

P1.35

Paper moved to Session 5, Paper number 5.2a

P1.36

A Verification Approach Suitable for Assessing the Quality of Model-Based Precipitation Forecasts during Extreme Precipitation Events

Andrew F. Loughe, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Henderson, J. L. Mahoney, and E. I. Tollerud

P1.37

The Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment (PACJET): Building Bridges Between Research and Operations

P1.38

Extreme weather events and their probabilistic prediction by the NCEP ensemble forecast system

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washinton, DC; and Z. Toth

P1.39

Restructuring the National Weather Service Quantitative Precipitation Forecast process

Gary M. Carter, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and T. M. Graziano

P1.40

Comparative verification of operational QPF products for the NWS QPF Process Assessment

P1.41

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center—Restructuring Its Products and Services for the 21st Century

James E. Hoke, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. W. Reynolds

P1.42

The Canadian Hydrometeorological Information and Prediction System (CHIPS)

R. Paul Ford, MSC, Guelph, ON, Canada; and P. Pilon, H. Goertz, B. Murphy, P. Campbell, and Z. Cao

P1.43

Evaluating forecasts of rain events

Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. L. McBride

P1.44

The impact of resolution and ensemble size on precipitation forecasts by the ECMWF EPS

Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza

P1.45

The Venezuelan rainfall-runoff disaster occurred in December 1999

P1.46

Integrating Climate, Hydrologic and Decision-support Models for Regional Assessments

P1.15a

A Planetary-Scale to Mesoscale Perspective of the Predictability of the 24-26 January 2000 U.S. East-Coast Snowstorm

Melvyn Shapiro, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Langland, R. Gelaro, and F. Zhang

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Session 3

Panel Discussion: Research Needs of the Private Sector (Invited Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

Organizer: Roger Pielke Jr., NCAR

3:30 PM

3.0

Panelists: Edward Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Joe Friday, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC; Kelvin Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Elliot Abrams, Accu-Weather Inc., State College, PA

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Sessions end for the day

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

Tuesday, 16 January 2001

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Session 4

Summer Storms: Basic Research (Invited Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

Organizer: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR

8:00 AM

4.1

Mesoscale convective systems and floods: a review

Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Parker

8:30 AM

4.2

MONITORING AND PREDICTING HEAVY RAINFALLS ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

Robert A. Maddox, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK and NOAA/NWSFO Visiting Scientist, Tucson, AZ

9:00 AM

4.3

Capabilities and Expectations for Flash Flood Nowcasting

James W. Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO

9:30 AM

4.3a

Coffee Break

8:30 AM-4:43 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Joint Session 2

Climatology of Precipitation Extremes: Observed Characteristics, Trends and Impacts (Joint with the 12th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses)

Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations; and the Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses )

Organizer: Greg Johnson, USDA-NRCS

8:30 AM

J2.1

Orographic Thunderstorms and extreme floods along the western margin of the central appalachians

James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck, N. S. Hicks, and Y. Zhang

9:00 AM

J2.2

Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part I, Spatial Changes

Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. R. Angel and S. E. Hollinger

9:15 AM

J2.3

Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part II, Temporal Changes

James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. A. Palecki and S. E. Hollinger

9:30 AM

J2.4

Analysis of Seasonal, Climate, and Elevation Effects on Times Between Storms

James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH; and C. T. Hanson and T. Keefer

9:45 AM

J2.5

Using PRISM to Map Extreme Precipitation Events

Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and G. H. Taylor

10:00 AM

J2.6

Very heavy precipitation over the contiguous United States: Climatology, trends, and relationship with high streamflow and cloudiness

Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, and B. Sun

10:30 AM

J2.7

Midwest U.S. Trends in Precipitation Extremes and Event Return Periods

Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL

10:45 AM

J2.8

Trend and Shift Statistics on Annual Maximum Precipitation in Ohio River Basin over the Last Century

Bingzhang Lin, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. T. Julian

11:00 AM

J2.9

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Stanley A. Changnon, ISWS, Champaign, IL

11:30 AM

J2.10

NOAA Atlas 14—New Precipitation Frequencies for the United States

Lesley T. Julian, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

12:00 PM

J2.11

It Is Time To Update The NOAA Precipitation Frequency Information

Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

12:15 PM

J2.12

Development of a New Storm Generator Model and Associated Precipitation Studies

James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH

12:30 PM

J2.13

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Associated Streamflow in the Reynold's creek Experimental watershed, Idaho

Clayton L. Hanson, USDA/ARS, Boise, ID; and F. B. Pierson

12:45 PM

J2.14

Paleohydrologic estimates of convective rainfall in the Rocky Mountains

Robert D. Jarrett, U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO

J2.15

Extreme Precipitation and Hydrometeorology Investigations and Needs

1:00 PM

J2.16

Creative Re-Construction of Historical Extreme Convective Precipitation Events using Radar, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and Conventional Observations

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

1:15 PM

J2.17

Generalized and Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Studies for Dam safety evaluations

Edward M. Tomlinson, Applied Weather Associates, Monument, CO

J2.18

Application of a stochastic precipitation model to estimate the inflow frequency of extreme floods to Folsom Dam on the American River Basin, near Sacramento, California

1:30 PM

J2.5a

Coffee Break

2:00 PM

J2.9a

Session Adjourns for Lunch

2:15 PM

J2.13a

Coffee Break

2:45 PM

J2.9b

Conference Luncheon

10:00 AM-11:59 AM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Session 5

Summer Storms: Prediction, Impacts and Responses (Invited Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

Organizer: Charles A. Doswell III, NOAA/NSSL

10:00 AM

5.1

The NWS end-to-end quantitative precipitation forecasting process: Status and future plans

Thomas M. Graziano, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. M. Carter, D. W. Reynolds, B. E. McDonald, J. P. Charba, and M. Mercer

5.2

General Issues in Forecasting convection and Heavy Rainfall from the Perspective of an On-Line Forecaster

10:30 AM

5.3

Flash Floods: Characteristics of the Precipitation, the Runoff, and the Social Response

Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO

11:00 AM

5.4

Social Science of Flood Events

Eve Gruntfest, Univ. of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO

11:30 AM

5.2a

Challenges facing the operational quantitative precipitation forecaster when predicting heavy to extreme events (formerly paper P1.35)

Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Spring, MD

10:00 AM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

12:15 PM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Annual Meeting Luncheon

12:15 PM

Details on Luncheon Speakers

Jim Hartz and Rick Chappell

2:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Poster Session 2

Summer Storms (Poster session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

P2.1

HPVCI—Convective Initiation

Paul J. Croft, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and D. Lu, J. Hafner, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and R. S. Reddy

P2.2

The sensitvity of West African squall line development to land cover changes

Karen I. Mohr, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Baker, W. K. Tao, and J. S. Famiglietti

P2.3

Cloud physical process in heavy rainfall of Mei-yu frontal system in South China

Peng-Yun Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and J. Yang, Z. Ruan, and S. Z. Yang

P2.4

The contribution of orographic rainfall to the extreme precipitation in Southeastern Africa in Spring 2000

Chris C. Funk, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and R. F. MacCracken

P2.5

The Relationship between intense, short-duration precipiation and flash floods

Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO

P2.6

Diurnal variations of summer precipitation between wet and dry years in the central U.S

Zaitao Pan, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal, R. W. Arritt, and T. C. Chen

P2.7

Characterization Of The Distribution Of Cloud Spectra For Thunderstorms In The Western Mediterranean Area

Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and E. García and J. L. Marcos

P2.8

Extreme precipitation frequency in the Semiarid Southwest

Lesley T. Julian, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. L. Vogel

P2.9

A Global Climatology of Thunderstorm, Hail, and Tornado Days

Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO

P2.10

Numerical Sensitivities in Convective/Nonconvective Cloud Interactions in MM5

Carlie J. Coats Jr., MCNC North Carolina Supercomputing Center, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry

P2.11

Extreme precipitation events in southeastern South America and relationships with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Leila M. V. Carvalho, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. Jones and B. Liebmann

P2.12

Predictability of heavy precipitation induced by mesoscale convective vortices

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. B. Trier, D. A. Ahijevych, and R. E. Carbone

P2.13

The sensitivity of simulated supercell precipitation to microphysical parameters

Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

P2.14

Potential vorticity streamers and their role in the development of mesoscale convective systems, part III: numerical weather simulations

Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Caracena and E. I. Tollerud

P2.15

Soil moisture and mesoscale convective complex development during the 1993 Midwest flood: Results from the MM5-PLACE atmosphere/land-surface model

R. David Baker, Austin College, Sherman, TX; and Y. Wang, W. K. Tao, and P. Wetzel

P2.16

Front Range severe flash flooding and El-Niño

P2.17

October 1998 Extreme Rains Over South Central Texas

Robert A. Blaha, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX

P2.18

Overview of the 7 May 2000 extreme rain event in Missouri

Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo, C. E. Halcomb, F. A. Akyüz, and P. Guinan

P2.19

Analysis Of Heavy Precipitation In The Region Of Valencia (Spain) By Means Of Ir Images From The Meteosat

Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and M. V. Fernández, F. Pastor, and M. J. Estrela

P2.20

Synoptic and spatial variability of the rainfall along the northern Peruvian coast during the 1997–8 El Niño event

Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Peña, N. Ordinola, L. Flores, and J. Boustead

P2.21

Big Thompson, 1976 to Buffalo Creek, 1996: Evolutions in emergency reponse to extreme preciptiation events

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

P2.22

The extreme east-central Missouri flash flood of 6–7 May 2000

Fred H. Glass, NOAA/NWS, St. Charles, MO; and J. P. Gagan and J. T. Moore

P2.23

MM5 Simulations of the Las Vegas flash flood of 8 July 1999: The role of SSTs

Dorothea C. Ivanova, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell and R. Rabin

P2.24

The Role of Dual Cold Fronts Aloft in a Major Tornado and Flash Flooding Event

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Mitchem

P2.25

Regional climate model simulation of a multi-week heavy precipitation episode in the central U.S

Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and X. Z. Liang

P2.26

Numerical simulation of the 17–18 July 1996 Chicago flood

Steven E. Peckham, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson

P2.27

Capabilities and Characteristics of Rainfall Estimates from Geostationary- and Geostationary+ Microwave-Based Satellite Techniques

Joe Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Liou, S. Qiu, R. A. Scofield, M. B. Ba, and A. Gruber

P2.28

Three-Dimensional Features of Summer Monsoon Precipitation Seen from TRMM/PR and Latent Heat Release over South Asia

Akiyo Yatagai, Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

P2.29

Comparison of TRMM and Rain Gage Rain Rates over New Mexico

Long S. Chiu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD and George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and Z. Liu, W. L. Teng, G. Serafino, S. Morain, A. Budge, C. Bales, and T. Wulff

P2.30

Regional climate modeling of the monsoon season over the Rio Grande Basin

James R. Stalker, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and K. R. Costigan, J. M. Reisner, and D. L. Langley

P2.31

Colorado High Elevation Flash Flood Producing Thunderstorms: Radar, Rainfall and Atmospheric Characteristics

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

P2.32

On the use of Radar data to verify the long term performance of the UK Met Office Mesoscale Model precipitation forecasts

Martin Goeber, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. F. Milton

P2.33

An AMBER playback of the Kansas City, Missouri flash flood of 05 October 1998

Robert S. Davis, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA

P2.34

Satellite observations of Pacific moisture surges associated with the North American Monsoon

Donald M. Anderson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. K. Berg and J. J. Bates

P2.35

Issues and Advances in WSR-88D Rainfall Estimation of Flash Flood Events in Complex Terrain

P2.36

National Basin Delineation and Flash Flood Database Creation

Gina M. Cox, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. T. Arthur, D. Slayter, and N. Kuhnert

P2.37

QIWI—A Web-Based Flash Flood Monitoring Tool

P2.38

Seasonal Variation in Multi-Radar Coverage for WSR-88D Precipitation Estimation in a Mountainous Region

Jay P. Breidenbach, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. J. Seo, P. Tilles, and C. Pham

P2.39

Evaluation of the Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall (AMBER) Flash Flood Algorithm at the Tulsa, OK and Sterling, VA NWSFOs

Ami T. Arthur, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Howard

P2.40

Assessment of quantitative precipitation estimates using weather radar and a distributed hydrologic model

P2.41

Rainfall Estimation from WSR-88D Reflectivities Using Artificial Neural Networks

Seth E. Snell, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

P2.42

On the uncertainty of a flood forecasting tool for small and medium size basins

P2.43

A new methodology of rainfall retrievals from indirect measurements

Aleksandr Falkovich, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord and R. Treadon

P2.44

Ensemble simulations of regional flood and drought climates

Zhiwei Yang, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. W. Arritt

P2.45

Development of a mesoscale 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system at JMA

Yoshihiro Ishikawa, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

P2.46

Short Range Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation over the Southwest United States during the Summer Convective Season

David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and R. A. Maddox

P2.47

The impact of model resolution and ensemble population on the detection of intense precipitation events

Frederic Atger, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

P2.48

Estimating extreme precipitation at high elevations in Colorado through mesoscale ensemble modeling

William R. Cotton, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. L. McAnelly and C. T. Ashby

P2.49

Short-to-medium range forecasting of midlatitude weather systems using a mesoscale global model with uniform and variable resolution

Stephane Belair, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Mailhot and M. Desgagne

P2.50

Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on convective system QPF in 10 KM ETA Simuations

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal, I. Jankov, and S. Aves

P2.51

Precipitation forecasts using the Battlescale Forecast Model

Jeffrey E. Passner, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and T. Henmi

P2.52

Some aspects of severe weather in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo

Augusto José Pereira, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and M. T. L. Barros and J. B. N. Romeiro

P2.53

Hybrid short-range weather forecast systems

P2.54

The effect of different initial conditions on short-term rainfall prediction

Ana M. B. Nunes, Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

P2.55

Impact of soil moisture initialization on a simulated flash flood

C. Travis Ashby, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton and R. L. McAnelly

P2.56

Quantitative precipitation forecasting of extreme synoptic-mesoscale events

Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Darlinghurst, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie

P2.57

Short-range forecasts of rainfall amount from an extrapolative-statistical technique utilizing multiple remote sensor observations

David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. D. Vibert and F. G. Samplatsky

P2.58

Anticipating heavy rainfall: Climatological aspects

Robert Hart, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. H. Grumm

P2.59

Forecasting heavy rainfall in the Middle Atlantic region

Paul G. Knight, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and M. S. Evans

P2.60

Criteria For Selecting Meteorological Variables To Be Used In Statistical Models For A Short-Term Forecast Of Thunderstorms And Hailstorms

Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and J. L. Marcos, J. T. Fernandez, and E. García

P2.61

Extracting hydrologic information from high-resolution rainfall forecasts

John W. Nielsen-Gammon, CIAMS, College Station, TX

P2.62

Use of surface mesonets, radiosondes and profilers to predict basin-specific QPF and flash floods in complex terrain

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

P2.63

Evolutions in emergency reponse to extreme preciptiation events: hope for the future?

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

P2.64

Application of an updraft warm layer depth QPF technique to June 2000 flash floods in the NWS Central and Southern Regions

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

P2.65

Flash floods in the Caribbean: Environmental conditions and Mitigation

Arlene G. Laing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL

P2.66

Post-Fire Flash Flood Prediction: A Difficult Challenge

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

P2.67

California Flood Damage and The El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Preston S. Heard Jr., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and R. A. Pielke, Jr.

P2.25a

Simulation of a mid-latitude convective storm initialized with bistatic Doppler radar data

Thibaut Montmerle, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and D. Caya and I. Zawadzki

P2.61a

On the Use of NEXRAD Stage IV Data in the Multimedia Modeling of Pollutant Transport

Brian K. Eder, NOAA/ARL, Research Triangle Park, NC; and S. K. LeDuc, A. B. Gilliland, and P. L. Finkelstein

3:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Grand Poster Night

Wednesday, 17 January 2001

8:00 AM-8:00 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

President's Symposium

9:30 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Coffee Break

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

President's Symposium Continued

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Lunch Break

12:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

1:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Joint Session 3

What do Climate Studies Tell us About Future Hurricane Frequency (Joint Session with the Symposium on Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses) (Invited Session)

Hosts: (Joint between the Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses; and the Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts )

Organizers: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD; Ants Leetma, NCEP

1:00 PM

J3.1

Historical Hurricane Trends and Variability

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

1:15 PM

J3.2

Climate Change and Hurricane Intensity

Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA

1:30 PM

J3.3

Coupled model simulations of hurricanes in a CO2-warmed climate

Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

1:45 PM

J3.4

Global Warming and Hurricanes

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

2:00 PM

J3.4a

Open Discussion

3:00 PM

J3.4b

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Joint Session 3

Continued: Hurricane Mitch: Perspectives on a Natural Disaster (Invited Session)

Hosts: (Joint between the Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts; and the Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses )

Organizer: Kerry Emanuel, MIT

3:30 PM

J3.5

Forecasting Difficulties during Hurricane Mitch

Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

4:00 PM

J3.6

Hurricane Mitch's effect on Honduras

Hector Flores, Director of the Honduran Hydrometeorological Service, Honduras

J3.7

The problems of disaster preparedness and relief in Central America

4:31 PM

J3.8

The reconstruction effort in Honduras

Curt Barrett, Manager of the U.S. DOC Mitch Re-construction effort, Silver Spring, MD

5:01 PM

J3.7a

Trends in Hurricane Vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean

Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Rubiera

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Reception (Cash Bar)

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 18 January 2001

8:00 AM-11:30 AM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Session 7

Hurricane Landfall Precipitation—Overviews, Our Problems, and Capabilities (Invited Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

Organizer: Robert F. Abbey, ONR

8:00 AM

7.1

Overview of the Hurrican Landfall Rainfall Problem

Gary M. Barnes, Unversity of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

8:30 AM

7.2

An overview of the development of heavy precipitation associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones

Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

9:00 AM

7.3

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Hurricanes: Issues and Opportunities

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

9:30 AM

7.4

Space-Based Rainfall Capabilities in Hurricanes Offshore and Inland

Roderick A. Scofield, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Camp Springs, MD; and M. DeMaria and R. M. del Alfaro

10:00 AM

7.5

Hydrological Considerations in Hurricane Flooding

Glenn Austin,

10:30 AM

7.6

Societal Impacts of Hurricane Precipitation

Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO

11:00 AM

7.4a

Coffee Break

10:00 AM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

11:30 AM-11:30 AM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Lunch Break

1:00 PM-1:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Oral Briefing: Poster Session P3: Extreme Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones

Organizer: Frank D. Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD

1:30 PM-9:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Poster Session 3

Extreme precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

P3.1

Heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclone remnants in the Eastern United States

Michael P. Shuman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and J. P. Koermer and S. D. Reynolds

P3.2

Relationships between tropical cyclone attributes and precipitation totals: Considerations of scale

Charles E. Konrad II, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

P3.3

El Nino and hurricanes produce repetitive flash flooding in coastal Alabama

P3.4

Two slow-moving hurricanes produce vastly different rainfall patterns over the Alabama coastal area

Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball

P3.5

Extreme Rains in South Texas Associated with Tropical Storm Charley (1998)

Jimmy D. Ward, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX

P3.6

Numerical simulations of mesoscale structure and evolution of landfalling typhoon and induced torrential rain over Taiwan Island

Peng-Yun Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

P3.7

Rainfall simulation associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. H. Yen and Y. H. Kuo

P3.8

Interaction of Hurricane Georges (1998) with Orography on the Island of Hispaniola and Its Impacts upon Excessive Orographic Rainfall

Qingnong Xiao, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, F. D. Marks Jr., and K. Park

P3.9

A modeling study of Hurricane Danny (1997) at landfall

Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and K. G. Blackwell

P3.10

Using TRMM observations to improve numerical simulations of precipitation within tropical cyclones

Giulia Panegrossi, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. Tassa, S. Di Michele, G. J. Tripoli, A. Mugnai, and E. A. Smith

P3.11

Mesoscale modeling investigation of air-sea interaction over the Gulf of Mexico for a case study of Hurricane Bret

Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. S. Reddy and R. L. Miller

P3.12

Impact of satellite data assimilation on precipitation associated with Orissa supercyclone of 1999

Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and P. K. Patra, K. V. J. Potty, and C. M. Kishtawal

P3.13

Prediction of extreme precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones

Robert F. Abbey Jr., ONR, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie, M. S. Speer, and L. Qi

P3.14

Multi-model ensemble forecasts of heavy rain events in Australia

Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

P3.15

Circulation patterns and rainfall associated with the Feb–Mar 2000 Mozambique floods

Rosalyn F. MacCracken, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. M. Thiaw

P3.16

Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the GFDL Hurricane Model

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and R. E. Tuleya

P3.17

Using AMSU data to forecast precipitation from landfalling hurricanes

Stanley Q. Kidder, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff and S. J. Kusselson

P3.18

A Self-Calibrating Blended Satellite Algorithm for Estimating Heavy Precipitation

Robert J. Kuligowski, ORA, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and M. B. Ba

P3.19

Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation for use by River Forecast Centers During Heavy Rainfall Events

Jay P. Breidenbach, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. A. Fortune, D. J. Seo, and P. Tilles

P3.20

Satellite estimates of tropical cyclone precipitation using TRMM, GOES, and SSM/I

P3.21

The distribution of convective precipitation in tropical cyclones after landfall

Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari and L. F. Bosart

P3.22

Radar-derived rainfall estimates for Hurricane Floyd over New Jersey

Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWS, Mount Holly, NJ

P3.23

The dynamics of heavy rainfall in landfallen tropical systems

Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY

P3.24

The quantitative precipitation forecasting problem associated with landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and J. E. Molinari

P3.25

The impact of a coastal baroclinic zone on the distribution of heavy precipitation associated with Hurricane Floyd

Kwan-yin Kong, City College of New York, New York, NY

P3.26

The September 21–23, 1999 rain event in the Maritime Provinces of Canada

William G. Richards, EC, Fredericton, NB, Canada; and R. Brannen and M. Campbell

P3.27

Extreme Precipitation Associated with Extratropical Transition

P3.28

Flood forecasting in Honduras

Jason P. Tuell, Litton PRC, McLean, VA; and G. N. Day, R. Lewandowski, and S. Ouzts

P3.29

Improving public response to hurricane flooding

James B. Lushine, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL

P3.30

Installing Automated Weather Stations in Guatemala for Meteorology and Hydrology

Jason P. Tuell, Litton PRC, McLean, VA; and R. Lewandowski, S. Ouzts, and G. N. Day

P3.31

Basic Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

Russell Pfost, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL

P3.32

Graphically Depicting Threat Assessment Information for Flood Situations in East Central Florida

David W. Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Coffee Break

3:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Panel Discussion 1

Status and Future of Hurricane-Related Precipitation (Invited Session)

Host: Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

3:30 PM

PD1.1

Customer Requirements Related to Hurricane-Related Precipitation—Area, Duration, and Rain-Rate

To be Determined,

3:45 PM

PD1.2

Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA

4:00 PM

PD1.3

Forecasting Hurricane Rainfall Using Numerical Guidance

William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA

4:15 PM

PD1.4

Improvements Needed for Hurricane-related Precipitation

Charles Guard, Univ. of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and M. A. Lander, W. F. Krajewski, and P. A. Kucera

4:30 PM

PD1.5

Numerical Model and Data Assimilation Improvements Needed for Hurricane-Related Precipitation

Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Closing Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Conference Ends

6:30 PM-6:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Closing Keynote Address

6:30 PM

Details on Closing Keynote Address

J. M. Cousteau

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Fiesta

« Collapse View