The impact of model resolution and ensemble population on the detection of intense precipitation events

An essential aspect of the performance of an ensemble prediction system is its ability to detect intense precipitation events. Ensemble forecasts are expected to perform better than a single control forecast in that respect. This performance would increase with the number of ensemble members. On the other hand, increasing model resolution is an important factor of improvement for precipitation forecasts. The impact of model resolution and ensemble population on the detection of high precipitation amounts has been investigated. Single models and ensemble prediction systems have been compared with respect to the economic value of intense precipitation probabilistic forecasts. Results suggest that increasing the number of ensemble members has a lower impact on the performance than increasing model resolution.