NCEP short-range model guidance for the 24–26 January 2000 east coast winter storm

The 24-26 January 2000 east coast winter storm produced severe winter weather from South Carolina north to New England, with snowfall totals exceeding 12 inches in several mid-Atlantic states. Several major metropolitan areas had no advance warning or only a few hours, as NCEP short-range model guidance predicted that the heaviest precipitation would stay to the east of those locations.

This paper examines the performance of the short-range models and how the lack of consistency and agreement within the NCEP model suite affected the ability of forecasters to properly assess the threat. The study will focus on the mesoscale Eta model and look at how this model trended in the right direction with each successive forecast cycle but failed to predict a major mid-Atlantic snowfall prior to the final run before the onset of the heavy snow. Issues related to the initialization of the models and the impacts on the subsequent forecasts will be emphasized.

This presentation will serve as the background information for Paper #18643 which examines tests performed with the Eta model on this case to attempt to better predict the event.