Criteria For Selecting Meteorological Variables To Be Used In Statistical Models For A Short-Term Forecast Of Thunderstorms And Hailstorms

Determining the short-term risk of thunderstorms or hailstorms in one particular area is a rather complex task. On the other hand, in those areas where agriculture represents an important economic factor, there is a social demand for developing reliable forecast models.

León (Spain) is one of the regions of the Iberian Peninsula where storms are very frequent in summer. The data obtained from a network of more than 400 voluntary observers in a study zone of approximately 7,000 km2 were stored in an important database. This database contains information on 1436 days, 488 of which correspond to storm days, and 241 correspond to hail days.

A series of meteorological variables have been analyzed during the past years in order to produce a forecast based on statistical models. This paper presents the criteria employed for selecting the meteorological variables. The results show that 87,45% of the variance has been explained with only four main constituents. Finally, the paper also includes an analysis of the variables included in each of the constituents.