Precipitation Extremes: Implications for Forecasters and Users

Extreme events present special problems for forecasters and users of forecasts. The uncertainty that accompanies such events is only part of the problem. Extreme events disrupt normal activities, create pressure to decide and act quickly, and produce levels of stress that may interfere with clear thinking. The activities needed to prepare for extreme events have to compete for time and resources with other, more mundane activities. Although forecasters and those who use their forecasts share common interests, extreme events often make them adversaries.

The negative impacts of extreme events can be addressed by reducing vulnerability before, the event, by effective prediction and response effective response during the event and by rapid recovery and adaptation after the event. Since the problems posed by extreme events are not only scientific and technical, but also social, economic, and cultural, they must be understood and addressed in that context.