11.3 An apparent multi-decadal trend in shortwave cloud forcing over the tropical Pacific

Wednesday, 17 January 2001: 2:00 PM
Richard C. J. Somerville, SIO/University of California, La Jolla, CA; and G. L. Potter, M. Kanamitsu, J. J. Hnilo, and J. Woolen

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of atmospheric data beginning in 1948 has provided an opportunity to study a consistent 50-year record of assimilated weather observations. Through the examination of several fields, we find an apparent long-term decrease in relative humidity and cloud amount in the tropical Pacific. As a result, the shortwave cloud radiative forcing decreased nearly 15 Wm-2 over the entire period. Two major questions arise: the first is the extent to which the trend over the 50-year period is a real phenomenon rather than the result of observing system evolution. The second is, if the phenomenon is at least partially real, what is its cause?
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