Program: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations (The 81st AMS Annual Meeting)

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Saturday, 13 January 2001

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 13 January 2001

Workshop Registration

Sunday, 14 January 2001

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 14 January 2001

Conference Registration

Monday, 15 January 2001

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Session 1

Climate Modeling: Climate Change (parallel with Session 2)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: David Easterling, NCDC

9:00 AM

1.1

Ensemble Historical and Climate Change Simulations

Warren M. Washington, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Dai, J. M. Arblaster, G. A. Meehl, J. W. Weatherly, and A. J. Semtner

9:30 AM

1.2

Where’s the heat? Insights from GCM experiments into the lack of Eastern US warming

Walter A. Robinson, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. E. Hansen and R. Reudy

9:45 AM

1.3

Ensemble Simulations of the 20th and 21st Century Climates by a Coupled GCM

Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and T. M. L. Wigley

10:00 AM

1.4

Simulated changes in extreme events of the hydrological cycle under enhanced greenhouse conditions

Reinhard Voss, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and W. May and E. Roeckner

10:15 AM

1.5

Sensitivities of SCM models to improved parameterizations of cloud-radiative interactions for tropical cirrus

Greg M. McFarquhar, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. C. J. Somerville, S. F. Iacobellis, and P. Yang

10:30 AM

1.6

Development of a cirrus parameterization scheme for use in GCMs: Comparisons with the observation in the tropics

Dance Zurovac-Jevtic, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and G. Zhang and V. Ramanathan

10:45 AM

1.7

Common Land Model (CLM) and Its Coupling with the NCAR CCM3

Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and Y. Dai, M. Shaikh, R. E. Dickinson, and R. Myneni

11:00 AM

1.8

Climate model biases introduced by parameterized orographic gravity wave drag

Huei-Ping Huang, NOAA and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

11:15 AM

1.9

General circulation diagnosis based on the pressure-isentrope hybrid vertical coordinates

Toshiki Iwasaki, Geophysical Institute, Tohoku University, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Japan

11:30 AM

1.3a

Coffee Break

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-2:45 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Session 2

Observed Climate Variability and Change: Proxy Records (Parallel with Session 1)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: John Christy, Univ. of Alabama

10:30 AM

2.1

ENSO during the first half of the twentieth century: Evidence from a proxy record

Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and E. B. Buxton

10:45 AM

2.2

Seasonality of precipitation in the American Southwest and cultural changes in the Colorado Plateau in pre-historic times

Henry F. Diaz, NOAA/OAR, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Cayan

11:00 AM

2.3

Climate variability since a.d. 1736 as expressed in an ice core from the Saint Elias Mountain Range in northwestern North America

G. W. K. Moore, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. Holdsworth and K. Alverson

11:15 AM

2.4

The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project: Results for 1851-1899

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Anderson, G. Clark, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, M. Zimmer, and J. Fernandez-Partagas

11:30 AM

2.5

Utility of glacier observations in climate change detection and attribution studies

Arthur M. Greene, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and W. S. Broecker

11:45 AM

2.6

Evaluating Northern Hemisphere snow cover during the satellite era: variations in extent and associations with temperature

David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and A. Bamzai and B. Ramsay

12:00 PM

2.7

Changes in extremes in European records since the 18th century

Philip D. Jones, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom

12:15 PM

2.8

Trends in Climate Change Indicators, 1950–1991

Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. Haylock, C. S. Frederiksen, and N. Nicholls

12:30 PM

2.9

Variability and Trends in Temperature Threshold Exceedences and Frost Dates in the U.S

David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

2.10

Attribution of twentieth century winter warming over Canada

1:00 PM

2.11

The Climate of 2000 in Historical Perspective

Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Vose, W. Brown, and T. Ross

1:15 PM

2.12

The Annual Cycle of Climate Change over the North Atlantic

James W. Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. K. Folland

1:30 PM

2.6a

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-4:59 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Session 3

Interannual Variability: I (Parallel with Sessions 2 & 4)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Sumant Nigamy, Univ. of Maryland

1:30 PM

3.1

The climatology and variability of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and L. M. V. Carvalho and B. Liebmann

1:45 PM

3.2

The Interannual Variability of Blocking on a Global-Scale: An Update

Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. M. Wiedenmann

2:00 PM

3.3

Seasonal-to-interannual modulations of tropical instability waves and their coupling with the atmosphere

Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and W. T. Liu

3.4

Seasonal mean anomalies associated with interannual variability of the Madden-Julian oscillation

2:15 PM

3.5

Variability in the Atmospheric Annual Cycle

David D. Houghton, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and L. M. Keller

2:30 PM

3.6

A linear model of wintertime low-frequency variability

Matthew Newman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Winkler and P. D. Sardeshmukh

2:45 PM

3.7

Effect of the solar cycle on cloud cover variations over the United States

Petra M. Udelhofen, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and R. D. Cess

3:00 PM

3.8

Investigation of a Proposed Solar-Terrestrial Relationship with Potential Monthly and Decadal Implications

Alfred M. Powell Jr., Autometric Inc., Springfield, VA; and P. A. Zuzolo and B. J. Zuzolo

3:15 PM

3.9

An evidence of a 11-year solar cycle in the Alaskan climate

R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS

3:30 PM

3.10

A Comparison of the Relative Contributions of Solar Variability and CO₂ Radiative Forcing to Global Warming

W. F. J. Evans, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin

3:45 PM

3.11

The Short-and Long-Term Variability of Selected Midwestern Tornadoes

Matthew D. Chambers, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and F. A. Akyuz

4:00 PM

3.12

Interannual variability of the sources of warm-season precipitation over the Mississippi basin

K. L. Brubaker, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and P. A. Dirmeyer, A. Sudradjat, and F. Bernal

4:15 PM

3.13

The effect of axi-symmetric forcing on the variability of the Antarctic Climate

Tom Lachlan-Cope, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and J. Turner and W. Connolley

4:30 PM

3.7a

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Session 4

Regional Modeling and Downscaling (Parallel with Session 3)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

3:30 PM

4.1

Downscaled Climate Change Scenario for the Western U.S. using MAS-SPS model nested within the HadCM2 Scenario

Jinwon Kim, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and N. L. Miller, T. K. Kim, R. A. Arritt, W. J. Gutowski Jr., Z. Pan, and G. Takle

3:45 PM

4.2

Regional Climate Modeling of Interannual Variability: EOF Analysis

Jan F. Dutton, Penn State University, Univeristy Park, PA; and E. J. Barron

4:00 PM

4.3

Combined statistical-dynamical downscaling of climate simulations

Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and Z. Pan, W. J. Gutowski Jr., and E. S. Takle

4.4

Regional Atmospheric-Oceanic Climate Modeling over Eastern Canada

4:15 PM

4.5

The Community Climate Model (CCM3) Simulation of the West African Rainy Season. Implications for driving Regional Climate Models

Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State University, University Park, PA

4:30 PM

4.6

Climate Sensitivity to Sub-grid Scale Disaggregation of Precipitation

Andrea N. Hahmann, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. L. Mosor

4:45 PM

4.7

Future extreme Weather Patterns over the Great Lakes region

Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and E. K. Grover

5:00 PM

4.4A

Tropical cyclone sensitivities to differing climate regimes

Jenni L. Evans, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia and Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Oral Sessions end for the day

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

7:00 PM-8:20 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001

Panel Discussion 1

Town Meeting—Panel Discussion: Future Directions in the U. S. Global Change Research Program

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Moderator: David Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Panelists: J. Michael Hall, NOAA/OGP; Jack A. Kaye, NASA; Joel D. Scheraga, U.S. EPA; David C. Bader, U.S. Department of Energy

PD1.1

Opening Discussion

7:20 PM

PD1.2

New Developments in NOAA Climate Resources

J. Michael Hall, NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD

7:40 PM

PD1.3

NASA Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy

Jack A. Kaye, NASA, Science Mission Directorate, Washington, DC

PD1.4

Continuing and Shifting Priorities of the USGCRP

8:20 PM

PD1.5

Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for the United States: An Overview of the EPA's Global Change Research Program

Joel D. Scheraga, U. S. EPA - Office of Research and Development, Washington, DC; and J. Furlow, J. Gamble, A. Granhsch, S. Herrod-Julius, and C. Rogers

8:40 PM

PD1.4A

U.S. Department of Energy Objectives within the Continuing and Shifting Priorities of the USGCRP

David C. Bader, U.S. Departmet of Energy, Washington, DC

Tuesday, 16 January 2001

8:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Session 5

Surface-Atmosphere Interactions (Parallel with Session 6 & Joint Session 2)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Michael Crowe, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

8:00 AM

5.1

Resolution and Spatial Compatibility issues in Land Surface Modeling

Jared K. Entin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, D. Toll, J. Radakovich, and B. Cosgrove

8:15 AM

5.2

The potential impact of proper land-surface representation on spring dynamical seasonal predictions

C. Adam Schlosser, COLA, Calverton, MD; and J. Shukla, P. A. Dirmeyer, and L. Tan

8:30 AM

5.3

Role of land surface description for regional climate modeling

Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS

8:45 AM

5.4

Water vapor tracers as diagnostics for the regional hydrologic cycle

Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert

9:00 AM

5.5

Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

Robert J. Oglesby, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and S. Marshall, J. O. Roads, and F. R. Robertson

9:15 AM

5.6

Sensitivity of the observed U.S. water budget to two different precipitation estimates

Evgeney S. Yarosh, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and C. F. Ropelewski

9:30 AM

5.7

Changes in snow depth and soil moisture from regional climate model simulations of future scenario climates

Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, and W. J. Gutowski Jr.

9:45 AM

5.8

Response of regional hydrology to single- & multi-storm events in Susquehanna River Basin Experiment (SRBEX)

Zhongbo Yu, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV; and E. J. Barron, B. Yarnal, M. N. Lakhtakia, R. A. White, D. Pollard, and D. A. Miller

10:00 AM

5.9

Impact of land surface heterogeneity on the spatial organization of cumulus clouds

U. S. Nair, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. M. Welch, R. O. Lawton, and R. A. Pielke Sr.

10:15 AM

5.10

Climate sensitivity to land surface variability from minutes to years

Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and O. Reale and C. A. Schlosser

10:30 AM

5.11

Providing Realistic Vegetation Phenological Description for Regional Climate Simulations

Lixin Lu, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. Shuttleworth

10:45 AM

5.12

Effects of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) and water stress on the energy balance and evapotranspiration of sorghum

Jonathan M. Triggs, USDA/ARS, Phoenix, AZ; and B. A. Kimball, M. M. Conley, T. J. Brooks, R. L. LaMorte, P. J. Pinter Jr., G. W. Wall, and C. C. O'Brien

11:00 AM

5.13

Climate lessons from the study of the boreal forest

Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT; and J. H. Ball and J. H. McCaughey

11:15 AM

5.14

Prescribed versus dynamic leaf area index in simulating surface energy and water budgets: experiments with NCAR LSM and CLM using field data from an agriculture site

Zong-Liang Yang, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and G. Y. Niu

11:30 AM

5.8a

Coffee Break

8:30 AM-4:43 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Joint Session 2

Climatology of Precipitation Extremes: Observed Characteristics, Trends and Impacts (Joint with the 12th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses)

Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations; and the Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses )

Organizer: Greg Johnson, USDA-NRCS

8:30 AM

J2.1

Orographic Thunderstorms and extreme floods along the western margin of the central appalachians

James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck, N. S. Hicks, and Y. Zhang

9:00 AM

J2.2

Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part I, Spatial Changes

Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. R. Angel and S. E. Hollinger

9:15 AM

J2.3

Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part II, Temporal Changes

James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. A. Palecki and S. E. Hollinger

9:30 AM

J2.4

Analysis of Seasonal, Climate, and Elevation Effects on Times Between Storms

James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH; and C. T. Hanson and T. Keefer

9:45 AM

J2.5

Using PRISM to Map Extreme Precipitation Events

Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and G. H. Taylor

10:00 AM

J2.6

Very heavy precipitation over the contiguous United States: Climatology, trends, and relationship with high streamflow and cloudiness

Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, and B. Sun

10:30 AM

J2.7

Midwest U.S. Trends in Precipitation Extremes and Event Return Periods

Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL

10:45 AM

J2.8

Trend and Shift Statistics on Annual Maximum Precipitation in Ohio River Basin over the Last Century

Bingzhang Lin, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. T. Julian

11:00 AM

J2.9

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Stanley A. Changnon, ISWS, Champaign, IL

11:30 AM

J2.10

NOAA Atlas 14—New Precipitation Frequencies for the United States

Lesley T. Julian, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

12:00 PM

J2.11

It Is Time To Update The NOAA Precipitation Frequency Information

Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

12:15 PM

J2.12

Development of a New Storm Generator Model and Associated Precipitation Studies

James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH

12:30 PM

J2.13

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Associated Streamflow in the Reynold's creek Experimental watershed, Idaho

Clayton L. Hanson, USDA/ARS, Boise, ID; and F. B. Pierson

12:45 PM

J2.14

Paleohydrologic estimates of convective rainfall in the Rocky Mountains

Robert D. Jarrett, U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO

J2.15

Extreme Precipitation and Hydrometeorology Investigations and Needs

1:00 PM

J2.16

Creative Re-Construction of Historical Extreme Convective Precipitation Events using Radar, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and Conventional Observations

John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO

1:15 PM

J2.17

Generalized and Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Studies for Dam safety evaluations

Edward M. Tomlinson, Applied Weather Associates, Monument, CO

J2.18

Application of a stochastic precipitation model to estimate the inflow frequency of extreme floods to Folsom Dam on the American River Basin, near Sacramento, California

1:30 PM

J2.5a

Coffee Break

2:00 PM

J2.9a

Session Adjourns for Lunch

2:15 PM

J2.13a

Coffee Break

2:45 PM

J2.9b

Conference Luncheon

8:45 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Session 6

Regional Integrated Assessment Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts (Parallel with Session 5 & Joint Session 2)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA

8:45 AM

6.1

The NOAA-OGP Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program: Informing the development of placed-based services in responding to environmental stresses

Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD

9:00 AM

6.2

Climate assessment for the Southwest project: an integrated approach

Roger C. Bales, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and B. J. Morehouse

9:15 AM

6.3

A vertically integrated assessment of climate impacts on water supply in Arizona

Barbara J. Morehouse, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. F. Glueck, R. C. Bales, A. C. Comrie, R. H. Carter, P. R. Sheppard, and G. M. Garfin

9:30 AM

6.4

Climate variability and water in the Interior West

S. K. Avery, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Dole

9:45 AM

6.5

Integrated regional assessment: the South Platte Basin

William E. Riebsame, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado; and Western Water Assessment Team

10:00 AM

6.6

An Operational Program for Applications of Climate Information: A Cooperative Venture with Florida's Agricultural Extension System

James W. Jones, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and P. Hildebrand, S. Jagtap, F. Zazueta, J. J. O'Brien, D. Zierden, D. Letson, and G. P. Podestá

10:15 AM

6.7

Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Agriculture in the Southeastern United States

James W. Jones, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and J. J. O'Brien, G. P. Podesta, and D. Letson

10:30 AM

6.8

Overview of the California Applications Program (CAP)

Daniel R. Cayan, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA

10:45 AM

6.9

An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Edward L. Miles, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. J. Mantua, P. W. Mote, A. F. Hamlet, and A. K. Snover

11:00 AM

6.10

The Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet

11:15 AM

6.11

Vulnerabity, sensitivity, and adaptability of Columbia Basin water resources to natural and anthropogenic climate change

Edward L. Miles, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. K. Snover, A. F. Hamlet, D. P. Lettenmaier, B. Callahan, and D. Fluharty

11:30 AM

6.5a

Coffee Break

12:00 PM

6.11a

Lunch Break

10:00 AM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

12:15 PM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Annual Meeting Luncheon

12:15 PM

Details on Luncheon Speakers

Jim Hartz and Rick Chappell

2:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Session 7

Climate Modeling: AMIP (Parallel with Session 8)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

2:30 PM

7.1

Preliminary results from the AMIP II experiment

Justin J. Hnilo, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and B. D. Santer

2:45 PM

7.2

Assessment of modeled snow cover from General Circulation Models

Anne W. Nolin, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. Frei and S. Pitter

3:00 PM

7.3

Evaluation of tropospheric humidity in AMIP II simulations

Rebecca J. Ross, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and D. J. Gaffen

3:15 PM

7.4

An examination of the sensitivity of a GCM to a coupled and uncoupled mode

Justin J. Hnilo, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. Boyle, B. D. Santer, M. Wehner, and B. Govindasamy

2:30 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Session 8

Observed Variability and Change: Upper Air (Parallel with Session 7, 9 & Joint Session J2)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Tom Peterson, NOAA

2:30 PM

8.1

Global temperature variations and trends above the surface

John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL

2:45 PM

8.2

isparity of temperature trends (1979–99) of atmosphere and surface: can we trust the surface data?

S. Fred Singer, Science & Environmental Policy Project, Fairfax, VA

3:00 PM

8.3

Detection and analysis of rapid temperature changes over a large pole-centered spatial domain

Lee Burns, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Christy

3:15 PM

8.4

The Comprehensive Aerological Reference Dataset (CARDS): Current Status and Future Objectives

Amy R. Holbrooks, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

3:30 PM

8.5

Effect of volcanoes on the vertical temperature profile

Melissa Free, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and J. K. Angell and A. Robock

3:45 PM

8.6

Decadal variations in the tropical tropopause: Implications for stratospheric water vapor

Dian J. Gaffen, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and R. J. Ross, J. K. Angell, and G. C. Reid

4:00 PM

8.7

Interannual Variability and Long-Term Trends in Upper Tropospheric Humidity

John J. Bates, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO

4:15 PM

8.8

Interannual-to-interdecadal changes in the atmospheric moisture over the global tropics

Igor I. Zveryaev, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and P. S. Chu

4:30 PM

8.4a

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Session 9

North American Monsoon (Parallel with Session 8 & Joint Session J2)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Henry Diaz, NOAA/CDC

4:00 PM

9.1

Modelling the effects of land surface forcing on the North American Monsoon System

David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and J. Stalker, P. J. Fawcett, and D. Henderson

4:15 PM

9.2

Influence of interannual variation in snow mass in modulating the onset and intensity of the North American monsoon circulation.

Fiona A. Lo, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. P. Clark

4:30 PM

9.3

Effects of synoptic events on modulating seasonal variations in the North American Monsoon System

Eileen A. Hall-McKim, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. W. Nolin, M. P. Clark, F. Lo, and M. C. Serreze

4:45 PM

9.4

Mechanisms limiting the poleward extent of the summer monsoon: South America, North America and Africa

Chia Chou, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and H. Su

5:00 PM

9.5

North American Monsoonal Moisture Sources and Climatic Teleconnections Revealed Using Precipitation Stable Isotope Timeseries.

William E. Wright, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. Long, A. C. Comrie, S. W. Leavitt, T. Cavazos, and C. Eastoe

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001

Poster Session 1

Global Change and Climate Variations Poster Session

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

P1.1

Assessing regional change and vulnerability

William E. Riebsame, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Huff, R. Platt, D. Theobald, and T. Dickinson

P1.2

Climate impacts on water supply and demand zones in the South Platte

Klaus Wolter, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. P. Hoerling, M. Medovaya, C. Anderson, J. Eischeid, C. A. Woodhouse, G. Bates, and M. P. Clark

P1.3

Use of ENSO information in improving seasonal water supply outlooks.

Martyn P. Clark, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. P. Hoerling, K. Wolter, A. J. Ray, M. C. Serreze, and G. J. McCabe Jr.

P1.4

Development of short-term streamflow forecasts for specific management applications: Case study of flow augmentation requirements for the maintenance of endangered fish habitat.

Martyn P. Clark, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. E. Hay, J. Pitlick, A. J. Ray, D. R. Cayan, M. Dettinger, M. Meyer-Tyree, and G. H. Leavesley

P1.5

Dendrohydrologic reconstructions: Applications to water resource management

Connie A. Woodhouse, NOAA - National Geophysical Data Center and Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. M. Meko

P1.6

Implications of climate variability for low flows and dilution of discharges from point sources

James F. Saunders III, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Lewis Jr.

P1.7

User studies in the Interior West: investigating current uses of climate information and user needs

Andrea J. Ray, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Webb and J. D. Wiener

P1.8

Value of Climate/Streamflow Forecasts for Non-Firm Energy Production in the Columbia River Basin

Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Huppert and D. P. Lettenmaier

P1.9

An Analysis of the Influence of El Nino and La Nina on Tornado Occurrence in the United States

Adam C. Rosensweet, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith

P1.10

Is the warming trend in eastern China due to the high absorbing aerosols?

Shaocai Yu, Duke University, Durham, NC; and J. Dong

P1.11

The effects of land use change on snowcover and the resulting influences on weather and regional climate

John E. Strack, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and G. E. Liston and R. A. Pielke Sr.

P1.12

Satellite Retrieval algorithm for Atmospheric Water Budget of Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean sea Basin: Seasonal Variability

Pablo Santos Jr., NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and E. A. Smith

P1.13

Regional Climate Variations with Increasing CO2 in East Asia

Ki-Ho Chang, Meteorological Research Institute, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. U. Huh, J. H. Choi, J. H. Oh, and J. Kim

P1.14

Investigation of the North Pacific Sea Ice Anomalies in the Context of Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability

Adrienne Tivy, Frontier Research System for Global Change and University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and U. S. Bhatt

P1.15

A detailed study of the April observational data for the Mt. Washington area over the past 45 years

Timothy O. Markle, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and N. C. Witcraft, J. P. Koermer, B. D. Keim, and M. K. Politovitch

P1.16

Trends in climate extremes in Southeast Asia, the South Pacific, and Australasia

Neville Nicholls, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and M. Haylock and T. Kestin

P1.17

EOFs of Climate Variability in Finite Interval and its Application in Climate signal Detection

Qigang Wu, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and G. R. North

P1.18

Revised U.S. Climate Change Indices

Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling

P1.19

Sensitivity of Climate Simulations to Land-surface Complexity: Beginning AMIP Diagnostic Subproject No. 12

Parviz Irannejad, Environment, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and A. Henderson-Sellers, T. J. Phillips, and K. McGuffie

P1.20

Development of a catchment-based hydrometeorological forcing data set for land surface modeling applications

Aaron A. Berg, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. S. Famiglietti, J. P. Walker, and P. R. Houser

P1.21

A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM AGCM at high resolution: The impact of horizontal resolution on the simulation of climate change

Wilhelm May, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; and E. Roeckner

P1.22

Estimation of anthropogenic signals in atmospheric GCMs using the General Linear Model and an efficient experimental design

David M. H. Sexton, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and H. Grubb

P1.23

Spring to Summer Transitions in the Missouri Ozarks Region

Christopher W. Ratley, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and M. A. Baxter

P1.24

Potential impacts of climate change on winter survival of perennial forage crops in the QuÉbec region of Canada

Andrew Bootsma, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and G. Bélanger, P. Rochette, Y. Castonguay, and D. Mongrain

P1.25

The US CLIVAR Program

David M. Legler, US CLIVAR Office, Washington, DC

P1.26

Decadal Variability in Tropical Broadband Radiation Budget

Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki and D. F. Young

P1.27

Comparison of two-dimensional cloud resolving model simulations with shipboard radar observations during TOGA COARE

Scott J. Carpenter, Aeromet, Inc., Kwajalein, Marshall Islands; and S. A. Rutledge, X. Wu, and M. W. Moncrieff

P1.28

Assessing the importance of snowmelt in distributed hydrologic simulations

C. Adam Schlosser, COLA, Calverton, MD; and W. J. Capehart and D. M. Mocko

P1.29

The Asian Monsoon and the TBO in the NCAR CCSM

Johannes Loschnigg, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

Grand Poster Night

Wednesday, 17 January 2001

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

President's Symposium

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

President's Symposium Continued

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Session 12

Precipitation Analysis: Satellite and Surface (Parallel with Sessions 10 & 11)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.

1:30 PM

12.1

Data and products available at the Surface Reference Data Center

Michael D. Klatt, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey and J. S. Greene

1:45 PM

12.2

Global Precipitation: A 50-Year Analysis Based on Interpolation and Reconstruction of Gauge Observations

Mingyue Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, and P. A. Arkin

2:00 PM

12.3

Interannual variability of tropical precipitation: how well do climate models agree with current satellite estimates?

Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. Marshall, J. Roads, R. J. Oglesby, and D. Fitzjarrald

2:15 PM

12.4

Rainfall Estimates over WestAfrica from TRMM PR, TRMM Merged, CMAP, SSM/I: A Comparison of the Interannual Variability for 1998 and 1999

Andrea M. Sealy, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and G. S. Jenkins

2:30 PM

12.5

Space-Time Characteristics of Rainfall Diurnal Variations

Song Yang, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and C. Kummerow, W. Olson, and E. Smith

2:45 PM

12.6

Variability and Mean States of rainfall in West Africa (1998-2000) as inferred from TRMM PR: Vertical Cross Sections

Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and S. C. Walford

1:30 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Session 10

Weather Risk and Derivatives (Parallel with Sessions 11 & 12)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Bob Dischel, Consultant Meteorologist

1:30 PM

10.1

Advancements in meteorological issues for the weather risk market.

Bob Dischel, Consultant Meteorologist, New York, NY

2:00 PM

10.2

Advances in climate data collection, processing and distribution

Michael Crowe, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. R. Karl

2:30 PM

10.3

Forecasts of weather probabilities

R. E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

3:00 PM

10.4

Seasonal Forecasts for Use in Weather Risk Management

Ants Leetmaa, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

3:30 PM

10.5

European climate data and forecasting

Harry A. F. Otten, Meteo Consult, Wageningen, Netherlands

10.6

Weather and Risk Management

4:30 PM

10.3a

Coffee Break

1:30 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Session 11

Climate Forcing (Parallel with Sessions 10 & 12)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Bruce Baker, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

1:30 PM

11.1

Top of Atmosphere Radiant Fluxes and Climate Classification

Anne C. Wilber, AS&M, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse Jr.

1:45 PM

11.2

Interannual Variance of Earth Radiation

Kathryn A. Bush, SAIC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and T. D. Bess

2:00 PM

11.3

An apparent multi-decadal trend in shortwave cloud forcing over the tropical Pacific

Richard C. J. Somerville, SIO/University of California, La Jolla, CA; and G. L. Potter, M. Kanamitsu, J. J. Hnilo, and J. Woolen

2:15 PM

11.4

Simulation of radiative transfer through broken cloud fields using a stochastic approach

Dana E. Lane, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and S. F. Iacobellis

2:30 PM

11.5

Cloud and surface radiative properties over the Antarctic Plateau from AVHRR data

Dan Lubin, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Berque and R. C. J. Somerville

2:45 PM

11.6

Evaluation of cloud and radiation parameterizations using a long-term data set produced by a single-column model forced with NCEP GSM data

Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville

3:00 PM

11.7

Tropical cloud radiative forcing and the tropical Hadley/Walker circulation: a simple model

Baijun Tian, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and V. Ramanathan

3:15 PM

11.8

Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observed from Natural and Anthropogenic Sources

Andrew M. Vogelmann, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and V. Ramanathan

3:30 PM

11.9

Changes in cirrus cloudiness and their relationship to contrails

Patrick Minnis, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA; and J. K. Ayers, R. Palikondra, D. R. Doelling, U. Schumann, and K. Gierens

3:45 PM

11.10

The Effects of Amazonian Deforestation on Regional and Global Climate

David Werth, Rutger University, New Brunswick, NJ; and R. Avissar

4:00 PM

11.11

Influence of Phytoplankton on Climate

Karen M. Shell, SIO/University of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. Frouin, S. F. Iacobellis, and R. C. J. Somerville

4:15 PM

11.12

North Pacific Sea Ice and its Associated Atmospheric Variability

Uma S. Bhatt, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and S. Häkkinen

4:30 PM

11.6a

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Session 13

Seasonal Prediction (Parallel with Sessions 11 & 14)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Chester F. Ropelewski, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ.

3:30 PM

13.1

Dynamical seasonal prediction including the effects of land surface anomalies

Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD; and J. Shukla, C. A. Schlosser, and L. Tan

3:45 PM

13.2

Seasonal predictability of African summer rainfall

Wassila Mamadou Thiaw, NOAA/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

4:00 PM

13.3

Are extratropical seasonal anomalies more predictable during El Niño than La Niña ?

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo and C. Penland

4:15 PM

13.4

Verification of Hindcasts Made by the Astronomical Climatic Prediction

John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Session 14

Observed Variability and Change: Surface Part I (Parallel with Sessions 11 & 13)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: David Robinson, Rutgers Univ.

3:30 PM

14.1

Planetary circulation and Canadian temperature trends

Xuebin Zhang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and J. Sheng and W. D. Hogg

3:45 PM

14.2

The Influence of the Atmospheric Circulation on Diurnal Temperature Range Trends

Imke Durre, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace

4:00 PM

14.3

An Assessment of the Magnitude of Urban Heat Islands

Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

4:15 PM

14.4

Assessing the spatial representativeness of air temperature records

Michael J. Janis, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC

4:30 PM

14.5

A Further Examination of Regional Temperature Trends in Atlantic Canada

Karen M. Sutherland, MSC/EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and G. S. Lines

4:45 PM

14.6

Assessing observed temperature and cloud amount trends for China over the last half of the Twentieth Century: What can the sunshine duration record tell us?

Dale P. Kaiser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Sessions end for the day

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

Reception (Cash Bar)

7:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001

AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 18 January 2001

8:15 AM-2:15 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Joint Session 1

Global Climatology of Aerosols (Joint with the Millennium Symposium on Atmospheric Chemistry and the 12th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)

Hosts: (Joint between the A Millennium Symposium on Atmospheric Chemistry: Past, Present, and Future of Atmospheric Chemistry; and the 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations )

Organizer: Donald J. Wuebbles, Univ. of Illinois

8:15 AM

J1.1

The GOCART Model Study of Aerosol Composition and Radiative Forcing

Mian Chin, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. Ginoux, B. Holben, M. D. Chou, S. Kinne, and C. Weaver

8:30 AM

J1.2

Satellite Aerosol Climatology Using AVHRR Channel 1 and 2 Radiances: An Update of the GACP Algorithm

Igor V. Geogdzhayev, Columbia University and NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and M. I. Mishchenko and W. B. Rossow

8:45 AM

J1.3

Inference of aerosol optical depth over land through the retrieval of surface BRDF parameters from the AVHRR pathfinder atmosphere data set

Kenneth R. Knapp, CIRA-NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Camp Springs, MD; and L. L. Stowe

9:00 AM

J1.4

Global Climatology of Aerosol Optical Thickness and Size for the Period of NOAA-9 Observations

Michael I. Mishchenko, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and I. V. Geogdzhayev

J1.5

Discriminating dust and clouds using AVHRR data

9:15 AM

J1.6

Variability of Aerosol Properties as Determined by Long-term Surface Observations

David J. Delene, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Ogren

9:30 AM

J1.7

Determination of an Asian dust radiative signature over the North Pacific Ocean and Hawaii from surface and satellite observations in UV and visible wavelengths

Ana Lía Quijano, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. N. Sokolik, B. A. Bodhaine, E. G. Dutton, J. A. Ogren, and B. J. Huebert

9:45 AM

J1.8

Characterizing the radiative effects of smoke from large scale vegetation fire events using radiometric surface observations, satellite retrievals and trajectory modeling

Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and S. J. Cox, M. Chiacchio, B. A. Baum, R. B. Pierce, and V. L. Harvey

10:00 AM

J1.9

Aerosol Climatology of the Pacific: Production, Transport, Evolution and Mixing Evident in Two Decades of Aerosol Measurements

Antony D. Clarke, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and V. N. Kapustin

10:15 AM

J1.10

A Summary and Comparison of Aerosol Properties Measured during Recent International Field Campaigns (ACE 1, ACE 2, TARFOX, and INDOEX)

Patricia K. Quinn, NOAA/ERL/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and T. S. Bates, D. J. Coffman, D. S. Covert, P. Sheridan, J. Livingston, and P. Durkee

10:30 AM

J1.11

Possible effects of aerosol-induced ice clouds

Ulrike Lohmann, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada

10:45 AM

J1.12

Characterization of the optical properties of irregular mineral dust aggregates combining individual particle analysis and modeling

Olga V. Kalashnikova, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. N. Sokolik and J. R. Anderson

11:00 AM

J1.13

Derivation of surface and TOA direct radiative forcing due to boreal forest fires using satellite retrievals and surface observations

Stephen J. Cox, AS&M, Hampton, VA; and P. W. Stackhouse Jr., B. A. Baum, and M. Chiacchio

11:15 AM

J1.14

INDOEX Aerosol Optical Depths and Radiative Forcing Derived from AVHRR

W. R. Tahnk, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and J. A. Coakley Jr.

11:30 AM

J1.15

Limits to the Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing Derived from Observations of Ship Tracks

James A. Coakley Jr., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and C. D. Walsh

11:45 AM

J1.16

A COMPARISON OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ECHAM4-GCM EXPERIMENTS AND ITS RELEVANCE TO THE INDIRECT AEROSOL EFFECT

Beate G. Liepert, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY

J1.17

Role of Sulfate Aerosols in Modifying the Regional Climate through Cloud-Mediated Radiative Forcing

12:00 PM

J1.18

Changes in the vertical temperature structure associated with carbonaceous aerosols

Yang Zhang, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and J. E. Penner, C. C. Chuang, B. D. Santer, and K. Taylor

12:15 PM

J1.8a

Coffee Break

12:16 PM

J1.14a

Lunch Break

1:46 PM

J1.8b

Exhibit Hours 10:00 a.m.–1:30 p.m.

8:15 AM-2:59 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Session 15

Interannual Variability: II

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Matthew A. Barlow, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ.

8:15 AM

15.1

The spatial and temporal signatures of low-frequency Pacific variability

Mathew A. Barlow, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

8:30 AM

15.2

A simple atmosphere-ocean coupled model for the north Pacific interdecadal variability

Soon-Il An, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

8:45 AM

15.3

Western U.S. Inversions and the link to Pacific Climate Variability

Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. R. Cayan

9:00 AM

15.4

Implications for the next decade of different views of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Robert E. Livezey, Climate Services Division/OCWWS/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. M. Smith

9:15 AM

15.5

A Indo-Pacific SST teleconnection pattern during ENSO

Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. R. Mechoso

9:30 AM

15.6

The evolution of tropical and extratropical precipitation during ENSO events

W. R. Scott Curtis III, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler

15.7

Simulating Historical Precipitation Variability Associated With ENSO

9:45 AM

15.8

Surface heating, upper ocean heat content, and the magnitude of El Nino warming

De-Zheng Sun, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO

10:00 AM

15.9

Variety of El Nino and La Nina in the 2oth Century

Chung-Chieng A. Lai, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and Z. Huang

10:15 AM

15.10

Summer drought in northern China

Hengyi-yi Weng, SAIC/General Sciences Co., Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Lau

10:30 AM

15.11

Sensitivity of tropical climate to SST forcing

Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and C. Chou

10:45 AM

15.12

The climate diagnostics of Asian summer monsoon

P.L.S. Rao, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India

11:00 AM

15.13

The Variability of Wintertime Precipitation in the Northern Coast of Egypt and Its Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Y. Y. Hafez, Cairo University, Giza, Cairo, Egypt; and H. M. Hassanean

11:15 AM

15.14

On intergyre dynamic communication

Huijun Yang, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL

11:30 AM

15.15

Arctic oscillation and variations in wintertime jetstreams

Julian X. L. Wang, NOAA/OAR/ARL, Silver Spring, MD

11:45 AM

15.16

A non-linear response of the Antarctic Oscillation to stratospheric ozone depletion

David M. H. Sexton, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

12:00 PM

15.17

A study of Arctic Oscillation induced by a positive feedback between the polar vortex and baroclinic instability

H. L. Tanaka, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Tokinaga

12:15 PM

15.18

The Arctic Frontal Zone as Seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

Mark C. Serreze, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. H. Lynch and M. P. Clark

12:30 PM

15.19

Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Variations in the Arctic

John W. Weatherly, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab, Hanover, NH; and C. Bitz

12:45 PM

15.8a

Coffee Break

1:15 PM

15.13a

Lunch Break

9:00 AM-11:44 AM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Session 16

Observed Variability and Change: Surface Part II (Parallel with Session 15 & Joint Session J1)

Host: 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations

Organizer: Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

9:00 AM

16.1

Global warming and the surface air temperature trend in polar regions

Petr Chylek, NOAA/ERL/ARL and Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; and G. Lesins, E. C. Weatherhead, and J. DeLuisi

9:15 AM

16.2

Decadal, Interannual, and Annual Variations of Water Levels on the Great Lakes

Jose A. Maliekal, SUNY, Brockport, NY

9:30 AM

16.3

Decade-Scale Precipitation and Streamflow Variations in the Kansas-Nebraska Region

J. Garbrecht, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and F. Rossel and J. Schneider

9:45 AM

16.4

Trends in Global Monsoon Circulations: Evidence for a Diminished Hydrological Cycle?

Thomas N. Chase, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Knaff and R. A. Pielke Sr.

16.5

Global Warming, Precipitation trends and the Hydrologic Cycle: An Assessment

10:01 AM

16.6

Variability and Trends in the Hydro-Climatology of the Major Eurasian Arctic Drainages

Andrew J. Etringer, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. C. Serreze, M. P. Clark, R. G. Barry, and D. H. Bromwich

10:16 AM

16.7

Tropical cyclone precipitation and dry spell mitigation

Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling

10:31 AM

16.8

Vegetation and Drought Monitoring of the Mongolia using Satellate and Meteorological data

Bayarjargal U. Yunden, Jacob Blaustein International Desert Research Institute, Sede Boqer, Midrashat, Negev, Israel

10:46 AM

16.9

The Contrast of Structure and Analysis of Cause for China¡¯s Temperature Fields in Two Periods During The Last 100 Years

Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Q. Tu

11:01 AM

16.10

Research on LFV of global and south-north mean temperature in last 150 years

Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Q. Tu and N. Shi

11:16 AM

16.4a

Coffee Break

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Lunch Break

3:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Exhibit Hours

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Conference ends

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Closing Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

6:30 PM-6:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Closing Keynote Address

6:30 PM

Details on Closing Keynote Address

J. M. Cousteau

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001

Fiesta

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