Simulations of Past and Future Climate Variability of the Atlantic Ocean and the Coastal Zone

Coastal ocean models, traditionally used in the past for short-term regional simulations of estuaries and coastal areas, are now being used for large-scale and long-term climate variability studies. The interaction between climatic changes in the open ocean and changes in the coastal zone can thus be studied in more detail than previously was possible. Diagnostic and prognostic calculations of past climatic changes in the Atlantic Ocean show considerable skill in simulating coastal sea level changes in different regions using only hydrographic and atmospheric data in the open ocean. Simulations of possible future climate change associated with global warming show in additional to large-scale changes in the thermohaline overturning circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, local changes in the coastal zone that seem to relate to changes in the Gulf Stream intensity and in recirculation gyres, making estimates of coastal sea lever rise from observations alone without dynamic considerations more difficult.