Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts

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- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 13 January 2001

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 13 January 2001


1
Workshop Registration

Sunday, 14 January 2001

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 14 January 2001


Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 14 January 2001


Conference Registration

Monday, 15 January 2001

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001


Session 1
Natural Climate Variability
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
Organizer: Otis Brown, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami
9:00 AM
1.1
North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Mode: Two Paradigms—One Phenomenon
John M. Wallace, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

9:30 AM
1.2
20th Century North American and European climate change: A forced response to tropical ocean warming
Martin P. Hoerling, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. Hurrell and A. Kumar

9:45 AM
1.3
Trend-, ENSO-, and AO- related precipitation and surface temperature variability
Todd P. Mitchell, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Quadrelli and J. M. Wallace

10:00 AM
1.4
The Leading Patterns of Climate Variability and Winter Weather Extremes in the United States Part I: Temperature
R. W. Higgins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Washington, DC; and A. Leetmaa and V. E. Kousky

10:15 AM
1.5
An assessment of the role of the ocean circulation in governing SST variability outside the tropical Pacific
Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and Y. Kushnir

10:30 AM
1.6
Stochastic modeling of climate variability
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/CDC and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

10:45 AM
1.7
Ocean-atmosphere coupling and the regulation of the South Asian monsoon
Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

11:00 AM
1.8
11:15 AM
1.9
Is there an equatorial Indian Ocean SST Dipole, Independent of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation?
Neville Nicholls, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and W. Drosdowsky

11:30 AM
1.3A
Coffee Break

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 15 January 2001


Coffee Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001


Poster Session 1
Natural Climate Variability Posters
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
Organizer: Otis Brown, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami
P1.1
Regional Snowfall Distributions Associated with ENSO
Shawn R. Smith, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. J. 0'Brien and J. M. Patten

P1.2
Long term variability of precipitation mechanisms in the Great Lakes region
Emily K. Grover, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and P. J. Sousounis

P1.3
Modes of SST variability in the Indian Ocean: Interannual and interdecadal variability, connections with ENSO and East African coastal rainfall
Christina Oelfke Clark, PAOS, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and J. E. Cole

P1.4
Monitoring Saharan dust events using integrated observing systems
Hua Hu, JPL, California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu

P1.5
PDO Modification of U.S. ENSO Climate Impacts
Mark C. Bove, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. J. O'Brien

P1.7
Sources of Seasonal Predictability for Daily Precipitation Extreme Statistics Over the Eastern US
Alexander Gershunov, SIO/University of California, La Jolla, CA; and T. J. Reichler and J. O. Roads

P1.8
Study of the Multiscale Variability of Precipitation during Extreme Flood and Drought Events
Renu R. Joseph, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. Ting and P. Kumar

P1.9
Temporal and spatial evolution of the Asian summer monsoon in the seasonal cycle of synoptic fields
Young-Kwon Lim, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and K. Y. Kim and H. S. Lee

P1.10
Tornado frequency in the Southern Plains as related to Sea Surface Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean
Jesse Austen Sparks, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. B. Richman

P1.11
How much "skill" was there in forecasting the strong 1997–98 El Nino and 1998–2000 La Nina events?
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Knaff

P1.12
A dynamical stabilizing mechanism in the climate system: a linear eigenmode analysis
Vladimir A. Alexeev, Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

P1.13
A global El Nino composite and the 1997–98 event
N. K. Larkin, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison

P1.16
Western Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Northeastern United States precipitation, 1896–1995
John K. Creilson, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and D. A. Robinson and S. Hartley

P1.17
A study of teleconnectivity patterns for boreal summer and winter
M. S. Santhanam, IBM India Research Laboratory, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, India; and P. K. Patra, S. K. Kuila, and U. K. De

P1.18
P1.19
Characteristics of Large Snowfall Events in the Montane Western U.S. as Examined Using SNOTEL Data
Mark C. Serreze, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. P. Clark and A. H. Frei

P1.20
Climatic Variability for effect of El Niño Phenomenon in Bolivia
Willian Ramiro Villarpando Camargo, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Cochabamba, Cercado, Bolivia

P1.21
Changes in Subseasonal variability associated with El Nino
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CDC and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001


Session 2
Impacts in the coastal zone, impacts on ecosystems and health
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
Organizer: Christopher N. K. Mooers, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami
3:30 PM
2.1
Climate Variability of the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean
Robert H. Weisberg, Univ. of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001


Oral Sessions end for the day

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 15 January 2001


Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

Tuesday, 16 January 2001

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


Session 3
Forecasting Climate Variability
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
Organizer: Ants Leetmaa, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC
8:00 AM
3.1
8:30 AM
3.3
ENSO—Past, Present, and Future
Mark Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY

9:00 AM
3.4
IRI/NCEP/Applied Research Center Collaborative Projects in Seasonal Prediction
Steve Zebiak, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

9:30 AM
3.5
10:00 AM
3.6
Spring 2000 Drought Forecast
Ants Leetmaa, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Lecomte, M. Kanamitsu, and H. Vandendool

10:15 AM
3.7
ECPC’s Weekly to Seasonal Global Forecasts
John O. Roads, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

10:30 AM
3.8
An empirical-dynamical extended range forecast model incorporating tropical diabatic forcing
Christopher R. Winkler, NOAA/CDC and CIRES/Univ. of Boulder, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman and P. D. Sardeshmukh

10:45 AM
3.9
NOAA's Extended-Range Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks
Gerald Bell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chelliah, C. W. Landsea, S. Goldenberg, L. A. Avila, and R. Pasch

11:00 AM
3.10
Tropical Cyclones and the Thermohaline Circulation
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA

11:15 AM
3.11
Atlantic basin tropical storms—interannual variability and nonparametric simulation of tracks
Upmanu Lall, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and R. Balaji, K. Yochanan, and M. Jennifer

11:30 AM
3.12
Representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: a tough test for a coupled model
Peter M. Inness, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and J. M. Slingo

11:45 AM
3.13
NWS/NOAA climate prediction services: evolution and new directions
Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

12:15 PM
3.15
African drought monitoring and estimation of Malaria vulnerability
Mathew A. Barlow, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and B. L. Lyon and C. B. Ropelewski

12:30 PM
3.16
Improving the interactions between users and producers of climate forecasts
Neville Nicholls, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and T. Kestin and G. Hammer

1:00 PM
3.18
1:15 PM
3.5A
Coffee Break

1:45 PM
3.12A
Conference Luncheon

3:45 PM
3.12B
Intermission

10:00 AM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


Exhibit Hours

12:15 PM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


Annual Meeting Luncheon
12:15 PM
Details on Luncheon Speakers
Jim Hartz and Rick Chappell

2:15 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


Poster Session 2
Forecasting Climate Variability Posters
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
Organizer: Ants Leetmaa, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC
P2.1
On the intraseasonal oscillation in a coupled GCM
Joong-Bae Ahn, Pusan National Univ., Pusan, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. S. Park

P2.2
The Global Change Master Directory: Connecting Users of Climate Data with Producers of Climate Data
Scott A Ritz, NASA Global Change Master Directory, Lanham, MD; and S. M. Leicester

P2.3
Simulation of seasonal to decadal variations by CPC's new climate model
Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Kanamitsu

P2.4
Sea surface temperature anomalies due to anomalous oceanic heat fluxes
Matthias Munnich, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and J. C. McWilliams

P2.5
Relationships between Atmospheric Internal Variability and the Responses to an Extratropical SST Anomaly
Shiling Peng, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. Robinson

P2.7
Performance of a nested regional spectral model coupled with a mesoscale model under contrasting ENSO regimes
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. S. Reddy

P2.10
The role of the ocean boundary conditions for seasonal predictability
Thomas J. Reichler, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. O. Roads and M. Kanamitsu

P2.11
Toward Understanding the North American Monsoon and Forecasting Summer Energy Demand in the Desert Southwest
David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and K. Redmond, D. C. Ivanova, and R. Rabin

P2.12
Using the Historical Relationship between Solar Flux and Hurricane Strength to Forecast Landfall Intensity
Phillip A. Zuzolo, Autometric Inc., Springfield, VA; and A. M. Powell Jr. and B. J. Zuzolo

P2.13
Value of Quality Evaluated, High-temporal Resolution Marine Meteorology Observations
Shawn R. Smith, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, D. M. Legler, and J. J. O'Brien

P2.14
The relationship between the atmospheric transients and the tropical sea surface temperatures
Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Kumar

P2.15
On the end of El Nino events
Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison

P2.16
A Conceptual Model for the Indian Ocean Dipole mode
Fei-Fei Jin, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and L. Yu

P2.17
Concerning Applications of Singular Spectrum Analysis
Han-Ru Cho, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan; and H. Ye

P2.18
Climate variability and large storm surge on the Pacific coast of the United States
Anthony L. Westerling, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

P2.19
An analysis of stabilizing mechanisms in the climate system using a simple atmosphere-ocean box-model
Karina Lindberg, Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; and V. A. Alexeev

P2.20
A Western United States Fire Climatology
Anthony L. Westerling, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. Gershunov, D. R. Cayan, and T. J. Brown

P2.22
A coupled modeling system of the hydrologic cycle within river basins
Keeley R. Costigan, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and C. L. Winter, E. P. Springer, and J. R. Stalker

P2.23
Delayed Atmospheric Response to ENSO
Arun Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and M. P. Hoerling

P2.24
Double Ensemble Estimates of Precipitation in the Southeastern United States for Extreme ENSO Events
K. V. Verzone, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, T. E. LaRow, J. J. O'Brien, and S. D. Cooke

P2.25
Evaluation of parameter sensitivity for different levels of land-surface model complexity
Terri S. Hogue, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and L. A. Bastidas, H. V. Gupta, and S. Sorooshian

P2.26
Interannual Variability in the Regional Climate Simulation over South America
Vasubandhu Misra, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. A. Dirmeyer and B. P. Kirtman

P2.27
Major Bangladesh floods as coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena
Peter J. Webster, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. Han, K. Sahami, and R. Grossman

P2.28
Mechanism of biennial oscillation in the tropical Indo-Pacific
Kwang-Yul Kim, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

P2.29
Dependence on land surface model of the time scale of soil moisture variability
Wanqiu Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Kumar

P2.30

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


0a
Exhibit Hours

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


Grand Poster Night

7:00 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 16 January 2001


Session
Sessions end for the day
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts

Wednesday, 17 January 2001

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


President's Symposium

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Coffee Break

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


President's Symposium Continued

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Lunch Break

1:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Joint Session 3
What do Climate Studies Tell us About Future Hurricane Frequency (Joint Session with the Symposium on Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses) (Invited Session)
Hosts: (Joint between the Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses; and the Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts )
Organizers: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD; Ants Leetma, NCEP
1:00 PM
J3.1
Historical Hurricane Trends and Variability
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

1:15 PM
J3.2
Climate Change and Hurricane Intensity
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA

1:30 PM
J3.3
Coupled model simulations of hurricanes in a CO2-warmed climate
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

1:45 PM
J3.4
Global Warming and Hurricanes
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

2:00 PM
J3.4a
Open Discussion

3:00 PM
J3.4b
Coffee Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Session 4
Societal Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability (Parallel with Session J3)
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
Organizer: Otis Brown, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami
1:30 PM
4.1
1:35 PM
4.2
2:20 PM
4.2A
Discussion

2:40 PM
4.2B
Intermission

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Joint Session 3
Continued: Hurricane Mitch: Perspectives on a Natural Disaster (Invited Session)
Hosts: (Joint between the Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts; and the Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses )
Organizer: Kerry Emanuel, MIT
3:30 PM
J3.5
Forecasting Difficulties during Hurricane Mitch
Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

4:00 PM
J3.6
Hurricane Mitch's effect on Honduras
Hector Flores, Director of the Honduran Hydrometeorological Service, Honduras

4:31 PM
J3.8
The reconstruction effort in Honduras
Curt Barrett, Manager of the U.S. DOC Mitch Re-construction effort, Silver Spring, MD

5:01 PM
J3.7a
Trends in Hurricane Vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean
Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Rubiera

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Session
Sessions end for the day
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


Reception (Cash Bar)

7:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 17 January 2001


AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 18 January 2001

8:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Session 5
Decadal Variability and the Oceanic Carbon Cycle
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
Organizer: Lisa Dilling, NOAA/OGP
8:00 AM
5.1
Anatomy of North Pacific Decadal Variability
Niklas Schneider, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. J. Miller and D. W. Pierce

8:15 AM
5.2
The influence of ENSO on the global oceans: a review of "the Atmospheric Bridge"
Michael A. Alexander, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and I. Blade, G. Lau, M. Newman, J. Lanzante, and J. Scott

8:30 AM
5.3
The North Atlantic Oscillation: A Climate Phenomena with Significant Impacts on Society
Martin Visbeck, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and H. Cullen and J. Cherry

9:30 AM
5.5
Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic decadal Climate Decadal variability
Yochanan Kushnir, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Seager and J. Chiang

9:45 AM
5.6
10:00 AM
5.7
Response of Ocean Biology to Future Climate Change
Jorge Sarmiento, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and R. Barber, L. Bopp, S. Doney, A. C. Hirst, J. Kleypas, R. Matear, U. Mikolajewicz, P. Monfray, J. Orr, S. Spall, R. Slater, and R. Stouffer

10:30 AM
5.8
Atmospheric Constraints on the Uptake of Carbon Dioxide by the Oceans and Land Biota
Ralph F. Keeling, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and C. D. Keeling and A. C. Manning

11:00 AM
5.9
Assessing California streamflow under present day and a 2040 to 2049 climate change scenario
N. L. Miller, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, CA; and W. J. Gutowski, E. Strem, Z. Pan, J. Kim, R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, O. B. Christensen, J. H. Christensen, and R. K. Hartman

11:30 AM
5.6A
Coffee Break

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Lunch Break

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Poster Session 3
Decadal Variability and Oceanic Carbon Cycle Posters
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
P3.1
Using regression and neural networks to reconstruct winter circulation indices and precipitation in the Southwest
Tereza Cavazos, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and F. Ni, M. K. Hughes, G. Funkhouser, and A. C. Comrie

P3.2
Using a 200-year simulation of a fully-coupled climate system model to investigate the role of the continental runoff flux on the global climate system
Marcia L. Branstetter, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. S. Famiglietti, W. M. Washington, and A. P. Craig

P3.4
Potential climate change and its effects on barley yields in Canada
Reinder de Jong, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Li

P3.5
Modulation of ENSO-related climate variations across the Southwest U.S. by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
C. Thornbrugh, Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and C. Liles, D. Kann, and D. S. Gutzler

P3.6
Midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction in an idealized coupled model
Sergey V. Kravtsov, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and A. W. Robertson and M. Ghil

P3.7
Land-atmosphere interactions over southern South America using a coupled plant and atmospheric model. Preliminary Results
Adriana Beltran, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., G. Liston, J. L. Eastman, and M. B. Coughenour

P3.9
Arctic Oscillation and its impact on US climate
Julian X. L. Wang, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Silver Spring, MD

P3.10
Analysis of regional Indian rainfall: Interdecadal variability and connection with Indian Ocean SST
Christina Oelfke Clark, PAOS, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

P3.11
Elevational dependence of the ENSO precipitation signal in the SW U.S
Peter J. Fawcett, Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and A. Tillery and D. S. Gutzler

3:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


0b
Exhibit Hours

Exhibit Hours

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Session 6
Global Change Directions
Host: Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts
3:30 PM
6.1
Observing the Oceans for Climate
D. James Baker, Administrator of NOAA, Washington, DC

4:00 PM
6.2
Sustainability Development: An Emerging Research Agenda
J. Michael Hall, NOAA, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD

4:30 PM
6.3
Climate Change and Variability: Lessons from Earth System History
Eric J. Barron, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Conference ends

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Closing Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

6:30 PM-6:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Closing Keynote Address
6:30 PM

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Thursday, 18 January 2001


Fiesta