Midwestern Economic Impacts resulting from NOAA's Spring Drought Forecast

The NOAA drought forecast issued in the spring of 2000 called for continuation of the on-going drought in the Midwest through the 2000 crop season. Suddenly widespread heavy rains fell during June and early July, setting all-time records in some Midwestern locales. The forecast had failed and the media focused on the failure, often blaming all meteorologists. It is important in this situation to assess what actually happened. This study is assessing the economic consequences of the drought forecast, focusing primarily on the agricultural community. The study is composed of four components. The first and most extensive important endeavor is a Midwest scale agro-economic study based on analyses of each midwestern state. The goal is to define the losses and benefits from the use of the forecast. Second, is a detailed study of what a large number of Midwestern farmers actually did as a result of the forecast to learn how many actually reacted to the forecast and how many did not based on interviews. Third, interviews will be done with staff at state agricultural agencies and state drought task forces to define thier actions resulting from the forecast. Fourth, some serious impacts of the existing drought on surface water supplies were ongoing when the drought forecast was issued, and this phase of the study aims to ascertain what cities did or did not do as a result of the forecast. Interviews will be conducted with water managers at drought problem communities in the Midwest.