Using the Historical Relationship between Solar Flux and Hurricane Strength to Forecast Landfall Intensity

This paper investigates the relationship between monthly solar flux cycle (28 days) and hurricane intensity. The intent of this investigation was to determine whether a relationship exists between hurricane intensity and the monthly solar cycle since it may affect ocean temperatures and atmospheric stability. For this investigation the F10.7 centimeter (2800 MHz) solar flux was compared against the life cycle of several hurricane events. The results of this comparative investigation are discussed.

The investigation focussed on the F10.7cm solar flux versus the storm's life cycle and daily lowest pressure for each storm. These preliminary results discuss (1) whether a relationship between hurricane intensity and solar flux may exist, (2) the nature of the relationship, (3) a possible structure for future formal studies, and (4) the potential for predictive uses. The results include the simultaneous plot of hurricane intensities and the F10.7cm flux data with a brief discussion of the potential dynamic coupling. In addition, visual graphics are included for a subset of hurricanes to show the structure associated with the more intense storms used for the study.