Moored Buoy Observations for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle produces year-to-year variations in climate that affect the lives of millions of people around the globe. Significant socio-economic impacts of ENSO have focussed attention on the need for improved for models to predict fluctuations between warm phase (El Nino) and cold phase (La Nina) conditions, and for improved understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying those fluctuations. Systematic international efforts to study the causes and consequences of the ENSO cycle began during the 10-year (1985-94) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program. These efforts are being continued and expanded upon under auspices of new climate research and observational programs.

This presentation describes the development of moored buoy programs in support of ENSO and related seasonal-to-interannual climate studies over the past 15 years. The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array, implemented during TOGA, forms a cornerstone of the ENSO observing system. Real-time data from this network of nearly 70 buoys across the tropical Pacific are now routinely incorporated into model-based ENSO analyses and forecasts. In response to evolving scientific priorities, the array is being enhanced with newer measurement capabilities and is expanding into global tropics. An array of 12 buoys has been deployed in the tropical Atlantic for studies of regional ocean-atmosphere interactions. Plans are also under discussion for expansion of the array into the Indian Ocean for studies of the Austral-Asian monsoon and monsoon-ENSO interactions.