Spring 2000 Drought Forecast

Droughts are among the most costly of the weather-related natural disasters. The past two years have seen major droughts across many areas of the U.S.. To help in the realtime monitoring of drought conditions, the NWS, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Drought Mitigation Center of the U.Nebraska established the Web-based weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. Early in 2000 monitoring tools indicated the strong likelihood that drought conditions would persist into early summer in the midwest and across much the the southern U.S.. A drought forecast was issued by the Climate Prediction Center for these regions in mid-March. This was based on the existence of large existing rainfall deficits in these regions, forecasts from several atmospheric climate models for the enhanced likelihood of drier and warmer conditions, and statistical soil moisture tools which also indicated the likelihood of drought conditions into early summer. From the hydrologic point of view the forecast was quite skillful. Fromthe agricultural perspective over parts of the midwest it clearly did not verify. The complexities of making such forecasts will be discussed.