Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

JP1.26

Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting

John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles

The attributes of ensemble precipitation products derived from global ensemble weather forecasts for periods up to 5 days are compared to short term ensemble precipitation products derived from Bayesian statistical analysis of existing operational deterministic precipitation forecasts. Advantages and limitations of the global ensemble approach relative to the simple statistical approach are considered. Some suggestions are offered on how an improved short term ensemble precipitation process might be developed that would include a role for human forecasters to add value to the results.

Joint Poster Session 1, Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)
Wednesday, 16 January 2002, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

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