Joint Poster Session 1 |
| | Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction) |
| | Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY
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| | JP1.1 | The advantages of using polygons for the verification of NWS warnings 
Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and M. Mitchell |
| | JP1.2 | 10 Years of Daily Forecast Verification
Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX |
| | JP1.3 | Evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks for the United States
Gloria Forthun, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and S. Meyer |
| | JP1.4 | Validation of NSIPP Tier-2 Seasonal Forecasts: what can we gain from improved SST forecasts?
Philip J. Pegion, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and M. J. Suarez |
| | JP1.5 | Using skill scores to assist assessment of the "Man-MOS-Met Mix" in probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasting
Preston W. Leftwich Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO |
| | JP1.6 | Principal component analysis of month-to-month precipitation variability for NCDC California climatic divisions,(1895–6 through 2000–1 seasons)
Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA |
| | JP1.7 | Automated, supervised synoptic map-pattern classification using recursive partitioning trees
Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and P. H. Whitfield and E. R. Lord |
| | JP1.8 | Summary statistics of precipitation and its anomalies for regions of Virginia from 1900 through 1999
T. Dale Bess, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA |
| | JP1.9 | data mining patterns in local heavy precipitation events
George A. Fenton, LANL, Los Alamos, NM |
| | JP1.10 | A Comparison Between Neural Network and Linear Regression Approaches to a Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Problem
Yerong Feng, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and D. Kitzmiller |
| | JP1.11 | Annual course of successive 30-days' overall, above normal, and below normal temperature persistence at one-day intervals for four U.S. stations with lengthy histories
Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA |
| | JP1.12 | Retrospective Time Integration Scheme in Mesoscale Numerical Model
Xiao-Jing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China |
| | JP1.13 | A New Year-round Multivariable Comfort Index
Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg |
| | JP1.14 | PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE NUMBER OF ASTHMA ATTACKS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE CITY OF BITOLA-MACEDONIA
Blagojce Mickovski, NOAA/NWS, Bitola, Macedonia; and Z. Nakeski |
| | JP1.15 | Influence of environmental and model uncertainty on Lagrangian flow structures
Leonid Kuznetsov, Brown University, Providence, RI; and C. K. R. T. Jones, M. Toner, and A. D. Kirwan |
| | JP1.16 | Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on QPF skill in both 10km deterministic and ensemble forecasts
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov |
| | JP1.17 | Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS |
| | JP1.18 | Use of adjoint-derived sensitivities in constructing an ensemble of forecasts
Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and G. A. Postel |
| | JP1.19 | Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor |
| | JP1.20 | Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During IPEX
James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh |
| | JP1.21 | A Comparison of Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Schemes
Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop |
| | JP1.22 | Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth |
|  | JP1.23 | Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models
Paul A. Nutter, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK |
| | JP1.24 | Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. P. Legg |
| | JP1.25 | Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors
Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan |
| | JP1.26 | Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting
John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles |
| | JP1.27 | Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction
Richard Wobus, SAIC/GSC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu |
| | JP1.28 | Some methods of combining multi-model ensemble forecasts
Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA |
| | JP1.29 | Effective Use of Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart |
| | JP1.30 | Linear and Nonlinear Perspectives of Forecast Error Estimate Using the First Passage Time (Formerly Paper 5.6 in the Observations Program)
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov |