JP1.14
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE NUMBER OF ASTHMA ATTACKS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE CITY OF BITOLA-MACEDONIA
Blagojce Mickovski, NOAA/NWS, Bitola, Macedonia; and Z. Nakeski
The purpose of this work is to show an annual distribution of the number of asthma attacks through statistic processing and graphic interpretation of the number of cases of attacks in the Medical center in Bitola and their integration with meteorological data from the Hidrometeorological Institute of Macedonia, as well as data on the percentage on the ground of certain forest families around the city received from the Forest Economy. This work can be divided in two areas. The first area is for a period of 5 years (1991-1995). During this period of time a primary maximum has been registered of asthma attacks in the winter months which appears as a consequence of increased humidity of air, the low temperatures and the frequent temperature inversion which contribute to the increased air pollution. A secondary maximum appears in the spring months. The second area is for a period of 10 years (1991-2000). We made this separation from several reasons: in these last few years is registered some changes of the climate as a consequence of some global and local factors (El Nino, the ozone hole, development of the city, it’s location, the closeness of one of the biggest Termo power plant in the state). This means that asthma attacks were increasing or decreasing their number according to the meteorological conditions, so primary maximum has been registered in the winter months, and a secondary maximum appears in the spring months. Special care was dedicated to the pollen of pine and molika, which are most frequent and take up an area of 6582 ha, northwest of the city. This is the only place where Molika can be found in the southeast Europe, that’s why we continued the research in this area. In the months of May and June during the blossoming of the pine, and in the days of northwestern wind when this pollen is the most present in the air, frequent attacks have not been registered. Because of this we firmly state that the pollen from pine and molika do not have an ethiological influence upon these patients.
Joint Poster Session 1, Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)
Wednesday, 16 January 2002, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
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