Wednesday, 16 January 2002: 3:45 PM
Solar Variability and Climate System Response in Ensemble Simulations of 20th Century Climate
An ensemble of 20th century climate simulations with various
combinations of solar, greenhouse gas (GHG), sulfate and ozone forcings
are analyzed in the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), a global coupled climate
model, to address the question
of are there different
climate system responses to solar
versus GHG (infrared) forcing?
Confirming previous results, much of early century warming
in the PCM is related to
solar forcing, and late century warming to anthropogenic GHGs.
Response of climate system to early century (solar) and
late century (GHG+sulfates) is different
in terms of relatively stronger tropical convection and intensified Hadley
Circulation in early century.
Stronger early century South Asian and West African monsoons in JJA
from solar forcing are associated with greater
relative land-sea temperature contrast.
Intensified tropical convergence zones over ocean in DJF from solar
forcing are
associated with coupled
ocean-atmosphere feedbacks involving surface energy budget and clouds.
These results suggest that relatively small variations of solar forcing
can be magnified by coupled processes in the tropics related to
tropical convection.
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