2002 Annual

9: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Saturday, 12 January 2002

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Saturday, 12 January 2002


Sat 12 Jan

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 12 January 2002


Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration

Sunday, 13 January 2002

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


Sun 13 Jan

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration

9:00 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

Monday, 14 January 2002

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Mon 14 Jan


Sessions end for the day

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Registration continues through Thursday, 17 January

9:00 AM-9:00 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Welcoming Remarks

9:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


1
Opening Session: Climate Observations and Climate Change Detection
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:
  9:30 AM
1.1
Components of a Climate Observing System
Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (71.8 kB)
  10:00 AM
1.2
Accounting for Effects of Volcanoes and ENSO in Comparisons of Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends
B. D. Santer, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and T. M. L. Wigley, C. Doutriaux, J. S. Boyle, J. E. Hansen, P. D. Jones, G. A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, S. Sengupta, and K. E. Taylor

  10:15 AM
1.3
A New Technique to Estimate the Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles of Climatic Trends, With Applications to Temperature and Sea Ice
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, D. J. Cavalieri, and C. L. Parkinson

  10:30 AM
1.4
  10:45 AM
1.5
Climate variations and its impact on trend detection
Julian X. L. Wang, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and K. C. Mo

  11:00 AM
1.6
Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent and Global Warming: Observed and Simulated Variations
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, D. A. Robinson, R. L. Armstrong, D. J. Cavalieri, C. L. Parkinson, R. J. Stouffer, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, A. J. Broccoli, J. M. Gregory, G. M. Flato, N. C. Grody, B. H. Ramsay, P. Romanov, and A. N. Basist

  11:15 AM
1.7
Evidences of Dominant Atmospheric Circulation Variability in the Context of Global Warming
Xiangdong Zhang, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. Zhu

Poster PDF (103.5 kB)
  11:30 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

9:30 AM-4:58 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Joint Session 1
land-atmosphere interactions: Part I (Joint with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Hydrology; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: Dag Lohmann, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Papers:
  9:30 AM
Reducing near-surface cool/moist biases over snowpack and early spring wet soils in NCEP Eta model forecasts via land surface model upgrades
Kenneth E. Mitchell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. B. Ek, D. Lohmann, V. Koren, J. Schaake, Q. Duan, P. Grunmann, G. Gayno, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, D. Tarpley, and C. Peters-Lidard

Poster PDF (575.6 kB)
  9:45 AM
Regional spectral model simulation for Brazil with soil moisture correction
Shyh-Chin Chen, Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and J. O. Roads

Poster PDF (107.1 kB)
  10:00 AM
Evaluation of LDAS land surface models with observed forcing and hydrology
Lifeng Luo, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and A. Robock, K. E. Mitchell, P. R. Houser, J. C. Schaake, E. F. Wood, D. P. Lettenmaier, R. T. Pinker, and D. Tarpley

  10:15 AM
Evaluation of streamflow and snowpack simulations in the land surface models of the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) Project
Dag Lohmann, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. E. Mitchell, P. R. Houser, J. C. Schaake, E. F. Wood, D. Tarpley, R. W. Higgins, R. T. Pinker, A. Robock, D. P. Lettenmaier, B. Cosgrove, Q. Duan, J. Sheffield, and L. Luo

  10:30 AM
Forcing a global, offline land surface modeling system with observation-based fields
Matthew Rodell, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, U. Jambor, J. Gottschalck, J. Radakovich, K. Arsenault, C. -. J. Meng, and K. E. Mitchell

Poster PDF (3.6 MB)
  10:45 AM
GCM Simulation of the Large-scale North American Monsoon including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics
Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. K. Walker, S. D. Schubert, and Y. Sud

 
J1.7
Influence of land use on the regional climate of southwest Australia

  11:00 AM
Land-Atmosphere Interactions at the Norman Mesonet Site
Jeffrey B. Basara, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford

  11:15 AM
Land-atmosphere feedback across eastern Oklahoma following the MCS events of August 1994
Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford

Poster PDF (189.9 kB)
  11:30 AM
The Impact of Oklahoma’s Winter Wheat Crop on the Mesoscale Environment
Renee A. McPherson, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (2.8 MB)
  11:45 AM
Spatial and temporal correlations among Oklahoma Mesonet and OASIS surface-layer measurements
Jerald A. Brotzge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. J. Richardson

 
J1.13
A Multiple-Layer Canopy Model: Solving the Exchanges Between Size-Structured Vegetation and Atmosphere

  12:15 PM
Impact of land use/land cover change on U. S. climate
Somnath Baidyaroy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and C. P. Weaver and S. W. Pacala

  12:30 PM
Impact of remotely sensed leaf area index on a Global Land Data Assimilation System
Jon C. Gottschalck, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser and X. Zeng

Poster PDF (119.2 kB)
  12:45 PM
Hydrological Land Surface Response in a Tropical and a Midlatitudinal Regime
Dev dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. Xue and S. Raman

Poster PDF (49.4 kB)
  1:00 PM
The Role of Vegetation in the Mountainous Regions of the Central Himalayas
Osman Yildiz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. P. Barros

Poster PDF (39.2 kB)
  1:15 PM
The impact of hydrological processes before and after a bushfire in a watershed in southeastern Australia
Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, S. Liu, R. P. Morison, and L. Qi

  1:30 PM
A New Method for Estimating Evaporation from Large Reservoirs
Edgar L Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and S. F. Daly, G. G. Koenig, and M. E. Nelson

  2:00 PM
Southern Iceland discharge and regional climate-North Atlantic atmospheric circulation relationships 1973–1992
Glenn R. McGregor, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and D. M. Lawler and I. D. Phillips

  2:15 PM
An evaluation of downscaling predicted precipitation in a coupled modeling system
Keeley R. Costigan, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and C. D. Tomkins, E. P. Springer, C. L. Winter, J. R. Stalker, and D. L. Langley

Poster PDF (209.0 kB)
  2:30 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  3:00 PM
Lunch Break

  4:30 PM
Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room

11:00 AM-2:44 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


2
Interannual Variability I: Modeling Studies
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Chet Ropelewski, Columbia Univ.

Papers:
  11:15 AM
2.2
The Control of the Warm-pool SST over the Magnitude of El Nino Warming
De-Zheng Sun, NOAA/ERL/CDC and CIRES, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (700.9 kB)
  11:30 AM
2.3
Generation and Air-Sea Coupling Mechanisms of Tropical Instability Waves
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and W. T. Liu

  11:45 AM
2.4
Monthly mean extratropical atmospheric circulation response to El Nino SST
Hui Wang, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and R. Fu

  12:00 PM
2.5
Tropical forcing of North Pacific decadal variability explored using a GCM ensemble
Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and T. A. Beitzel

  12:15 PM
2.6
Multidecadal Variations of ENSO Teleconnection in the NCAR CCM3
Qi Hu, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and S. Feng

  12:30 PM
2.7
Changes of Probability associated with El Nino
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo and C. Penland

 
2.8
Observed and Simulated Seesaw between Aleutian and Icelandic Lows and its Interdecadal Modulation

  12:45 PM
2.9
An integrated approach to coupled climate modeling based on geodesic grids and quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinates
Todd D. Ringler, Colostate State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

  1:00 PM
Seasonal Cycles of Surface Radiation Budget and Climate Classes
Anne Wilber, AS&M, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse

  1:15 PM
Lunch Break

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


3
Observed Climate Change I: Paleo and Instrumental Records
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Dian Seidel, NOAA/ARL

Papers:
  1:30 PM
3.1
The carbon dioxide theory of climate change: emergence, eclipse, and reemergence, ca. 1850–1950
James R. Fleming, Colby College, Waterville, ME

http://www.colby.edu/sci.tech/controversy/pages/historical.htm

Poster PDF (10.5 kB)
  1:45 PM
3.2
400 Years of California Central Valley precipitation reconstructed from blue oaks
Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. W. Stahle, M. D. Therrell, D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger

  2:00 PM
3.3
Analogs of 20th century moisture anomalies in the central and western USA, 1500-1978
Falko K. Fye, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and D. W. Stahle and E. R. Cook

  2:15 PM
3.4
Describing global climate variability and change using simple indices
David J. Karoly, Monash University, Clayton, Vic, Australia; and K. Braganza

Poster PDF (14.8 kB)
  2:30 PM
3.5
The 1930s Drought in the U.S. Great Plains: New Perspectives and a Look at Land Surface Responses
Henry F. Diaz, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Webb, J. K. Eischeid, and S. Forman

Poster PDF (297.0 kB)
  2:45 PM
3.6
The Climate of 2001 in Historical Perspective
Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and K. L. Gleason, R. Heim, S. Stephens, and D. Chappas

  3:00 PM
3.7
Warming phases in long-term Spanish Temperature Change
Manola Brunet, University Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain; and E. Aguilar, O. Saladié, J. Sigró, and D. López

  3:15 PM
3.8
Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861
Christopher K. Folland, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, I. Macadam, D. M. H. Sexton, S. J. Brown, T. M. Smith, S. S. P. Shen, P. D. Jones, R. N. Jones, and N. Nicholls

  3:30 PM
3.9
109-year record of surface temperatures in N. Alabama
John R. Christy, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

Poster PDF (353.6 kB)
  3:45 PM
Observed High-Latitude Temperature Changes in the Northern Hemisphere
David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and P. D. Jones, C. M. Eakin, T. C. Peterson, J. Lawrimore, P. Y. Groisman, and M. MacCraken

  4:00 PM
The Climate Change in the Western Arctic During the Last Two Decades
Muyin Wang, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. E. Overland and N. Bond

Poster PDF (180.5 kB)
  4:15 PM
Trend analysis of the 20th century snowfall record for Minnesota
Martha D. Shulski, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN; and M. W. Seeley

  4:45 PM
How are Decade-Scale Precipitation Variations Reflected in the Daily Precipitation Record?
Jurgen D. Garbrecht, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and J. Schneider and X. C. Zhang

  5:00 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

3:30 PM-4:59 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Joint Session 2
Climate Model Diagnostics: Tools (Joint with the 18th Conference IIPS and 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; and the 18th International Conference on IIPS )
Organizer: Dean Williams, LLNL

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Climate data analysis tool: an open software system approach
Dean N. Williams, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and R. S. Drach, P. F. Dubois, C. Doutriaux, C. J. O'Connor, K. M. AchutaRao, and M. Fiorino

Poster PDF (99.0 kB)
  4:00 PM
The Live Access Server: a tool for Web access to in-situ data collections, too
Steven Hankin, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. Sirott, J. Callahan, K. O'Brien, and A. Manke

Poster PDF (21.4 kB)
  4:15 PM
The NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS)
Glenn K. Rutledge, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Alpert, R. Stouffer, B. Domenico, L. Buja, D. N. Williams, B. Doty, M. Kafatos, and S. Hankin

Poster PDF (37.6 kB)
  4:30 PM
ARCAS (ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System)—a web access system for climate model data access, visualization and comparison
T. M. L. Wigley, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Brown, J. Callahan, S. Hankin, C. Hakkarinen, M. de Koningh, D. Middleton-link, and J. Sirott

 
J2.5
An Overview of the Live Access Server

  4:45 PM
A suite of web pages for analyzing climate signals in large datasets
Catherine A. Smith, NOAA/CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Collins and R. H. Schweitzer

http://

Poster PDF (62.3 kB)

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


4
Regional Climate Modeling
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

Papers:
  3:30 PM
4.1
Enhanced Climatic Warming over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Double CO2: A Model Study
Baode Chen, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. C. Chao and X. Liu

Poster PDF (100.7 kB)
 
4.3
The potential influence of river and wetland co2 fluxes on regional carbon balance in the Tapajos region, Para, Brazil

  4:15 PM
4.4
On PIRCS models' consistency of dynamics with precipitation
Zaitao Pan IV, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Arritt, E. Takle, W. Gutowski, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, and E. al

  4:30 PM
4.5
Regional climate simulation of the anomalous events of 1998 using a stretched-grid GCM with multiple areas of interest
Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, College Park, MD; and L. L. Takacs and R. C. Govindaraju

Poster PDF (9.0 kB)
  4:45 PM
4.6
Investigation of Middle Eastern climate using a regional climate model
Jason Evans, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. Oglesby, K. Maasch, and R. Smith

http://www.yale.edu/ceo/Projects/swap.html

Poster PDF (91.7 kB)
  5:00 PM
4.7
Reanalyses and GCM driven nested model sensitivity studies for South America
Anji Seth, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Rojas

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

7:00 PM-8:30 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Panel Discussion 1
U.S. Global Change Research Program: Future Prospects
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Moderator: Robert W. Corell, AMS
Panelists: Ghassem Asrar, NASA; Margaret Leinen, NSF; Jerry Elwoods, U.S. Department of Energy; Janet Gamble, U.S. EPA; J. Michael Hall, NOAA/OGP

Papers:
  7:00 PM
Recent Developments for NASA's Global Change Programs
Ghassem Asrar, NASA, Washington, DC

  7:15 PM
USGCRP and the National Science Foundation
Margaret Leinen, NSF, Arlington, VA

  7:30 PM
USGCRP and the U.S. Department of Energy
Jerry Elwood, U.S. Department of Energy, Germantown, MD

  8:00 PM
The Role of Global Environmental Change Research in the 21st Century
J. Michael Hall, NOAA/OGP, Silver Spring, MD

  8:15 PM
An Introduction to the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Richard Moss, U.S. Global Change Research Program Office, Washington, DC

Tuesday, 15 January 2002

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Tue 15 Jan

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


5
Climate Model Diagnostics: New Methods
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Gerald Potter, LLNL

Papers:
  8:30 AM
5.1
Diagnostics of vertically integrated fluxes of energy.
Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Stepaniak

Poster PDF (344.2 kB)
  9:00 AM
5.2
Contrasting of numerical uncertainties of climate models in simulating reversibility
Donald R. Johnson, University of Wisconsin, Madison,, WI; and T. K. Schaack, A. J. Lenzen, and T. H. Zapotocny

  9:30 AM
5.3
Analyzing atmospheric general circulation models with a linearized single column model
John W. Bergman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

  9:45 AM
5.4
Diagnosing the anthropogenically-forced signal in a coupled climate model
David W. Pierce, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and T. P. Barnett

  10:00 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

8:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


6
Observed Climate Change II: Data and Extremes
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:
  8:30 AM
6.1
Estimating urbanization and land use effects on surface temperatures
Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay

  8:45 AM
6.2
The FCC Integrated Surface Hourly Database, a New Resource of Global Climate Data
J. Neal Lott, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Baldwin

Poster PDF (88.2 kB)
  9:00 AM
6.3
Evidence for a recent advance in the timing of a surface-air warming
Daria Scott, St. Cloud State University, Saint Cloud, MN; and T. J. Blasing and D. P. Kaiser

  9:30 AM
6.5
  9:45 AM
6.6
Comparison of Lower-Tropospheric Temperatures at Low and High Elevation Radiosonde Sites
Dian J. Seidel, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Free

  10:00 AM
6.7
Recent climate change in the Caribbean
Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. Tayloe

  10:15 AM
6.8
Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during 2nd half of the 20th century
Lisa Alexander, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and P. Frich, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson

  10:30 AM
6.9
Variability and trends in short-duration extreme events in the U.S.
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. Andsager and D. R. Easterling

  10:45 AM
Trends and variability in winter cold and warm spells over Canada
Amir Shabbar, MSC, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and B. Bonsal

Poster PDF (521.3 kB)
  11:00 AM
Very Heavy Precipitation over Land: Estimates Based on a New Global Daily Precipitation Data Set
Pavel Ya. Groisman, UCAR and NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight and T. R. Karl

Poster PDF (729.1 kB)
  11:15 AM
Hydro-climatic factors and socioeconomic impacts of the recent record drop in Laurentian Great Lakes water levels
Frank H. Quinn, NOAA/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. A. Assel and C. E. Sellinger

  11:30 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

8:30 AM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 3
Climate Variations and Forecasting (Joint with the 16th Conference Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizers: Rick Katz, NCAR; Bob Livezey, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  8:30 AM
A new significance test for empirical orthogonal functions
M. S. Santhanam, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and B. Aditya and G. A. Kumar

Poster PDF (834.4 kB)
  8:45 AM
The correlation structure of some simple indices of global climate variability and change
David J. Karoly, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and K. Braganza

Poster PDF (16.2 kB)
  9:00 AM
Cloudiness trends in Canada
Ewa J. Milewska, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada

Poster PDF (112.7 kB)
  9:15 AM
A linear approach to atmospheric predictability on the medium and extended range
Matthew Newman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. R. Winkler

  9:45 AM
A hazard model for tornado occurrence in the United States
Cathryn L. Meyer, Boston College, Boston, MA; and H. E. Brooks and M. P. Kay

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  10:00 AM
A new perspective on the climatology of tornadoes in the United States
Sara L. Bruening, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and M. P. Kay and H. E. Brooks

Poster PDF (533.7 kB)
  10:15 AM
Determining Fog Type in the Los Angeles Basin Using Historic Surface Observation Data
Jeffrey A. Baars, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and M. Witiw, A. Al-Habash, and J. Ramaprasad

Poster PDF (62.5 kB)
  10:30 AM
Fog in the Los Angeles Basin: Influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Michael R. Witiw, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and J. A. Baars and J. Ramaprasad

  11:00 AM
Predictability of anomalous storm tracks
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland

  11:15 AM
Seasonal forecasting of strong winds over Europe
J. P. Palutikof, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and T. Holt and T. J. Osborn

Poster PDF (218.5 kB)
  11:30 AM
A Space-Time Model for Seasonal Hurricane Prediction
Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and X. Niu and J. B. Elsner

Poster PDF (96.8 kB)
  11:45 AM
Predictive United States' hurricane climate
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. H. Bossak

http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/HTML/Research/papers/predclim/predclim.html

Poster PDF (80.1 kB)
  12:00 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  12:30 PM
Grand Poster Luncheon

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Poster Session 1
Land Amosphere Interactions (Joint with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Hydrology; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: James A. Smith, Princeton Univ.

Papers:
 
Warm-season land-atmosphere interactions in the Nebraska Sand Hills
Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson

Poster PDF (358.7 kB)
 
Spatial-temporal variability of the groundwater level
María del Valle Venencio, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; and N. O. García

Poster PDF (27.8 kB)
 
Soil moisture-rainfall feedback on the North American Monsoon system
Jianjun Xu, New Mexico Institute of Mining & Technology, Socorro, NM; and E. E. Small

 
Quantifying Land-Atmosphere Interactions at the Norman Mesonet Site: A Sensitivity Analysis Using the Oregon State University 1-D PBL Model
Jeffrey B. Basara, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford and M. B. Ek

 
JP1.6
Parameterization of Jarvis-Stewart model in a deciduous secondary Forest In Japan and comparison with European and Amazon forests

 
Modeling of evaporation from a forest floor and application to a basin
Koji Tamai, Forestry & Forest Products Research Institute, Kyoto, Japan

 
Estimation of Seasonal Changes in Soil Moisture Storage Based on Water Balance Calculations
Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and P. A. Viterbo, D. Lüthi, and C. Schär

 
Assessment of implementing satellite-derived land cover data in the Eta model
Nicole P. Kurkowski, University of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud

Poster PDF (132.4 kB)
 
About of the 1970/71 climatic jump on the "Rio de la Plata" basin
Norberto O. García, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; and W. M. Vargas and M. D. V. Venencio

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


5
Climate Model Diagnostics: New Methods, Cont.
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Kevin Trenberth, NCAR

Papers:
  10:30 AM
5.5
  10:45 AM
5.6
A dynamical feedback in the climate system: analysis of stability and sensitivity of an atmospheric GCM coupled to oceanic upper mixed layer
Vladimir A. Alexeev, Danish Center for Earth System Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

 
5.7
The Effect of Tropical Dry Zones on the Sensitivity of the Tropical Climate

  11:15 AM
5.8
Diagnostics of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model
Shan Sun, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and R. Bleck

  11:30 AM
5.9
Climate model diagnosis: evaluating a climate model as a NWP forecast model
James S. Boyle, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and G. L. Potter, M. Fiorino, and J. J. Hnilo

  11:45 AM

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Grand Poster Luncheon

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Poster Session 1
Poster Session: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Papers:
 
Regional synoptic climatology study of the Mt. Washington area
John H. Gillman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and B. J. D'Agostino, T. O. Markle, N. C. Witcraft, J. P. Koermer, and B. D. Keim

Poster PDF (131.7 kB)
 
Satellite Observed Land Skin Temperature Variations: 1981-1998
Menglin Jin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. E. Dickinson and E. Kalnay

Poster PDF (65.4 kB)
 
Satellite observations of long-term changes in tropical cloud and outgoing longwave radiation from 1985 to 1998
Pi-Huan Wang, Science and Technology Corporation, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki, T. Wong, P. Minnis, and L. B. Vann

 
Sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric energy balance to ENSO-related SST changes: Comparison of climate model simulations to observed responses
Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Fitzjarrald, S. Marshall, R. Oglesby, and J. Roads

 
Soil Moisture Profile Variability and its Potential Impact on Climate Spectra
Wanru Wu, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and R. E. Dickinson and M. A. Geller

 
Simulation of the North American MOnsoon in Different Pacific SST Regimes Using RAMS
Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State University, Tucson, AZ; and R. A. Pielke, Sr. and G. E. Liston

 
Spatial-temporal structure of the interannual variability of precipitation over "Rio de la Plata" basin
Carlos M. Krepper Sr., Universidad Nacional del Sur, Bahia Blanca, Argentina; and N. O. García

 
Trend and interannual variations in air temperature over the Iberian peninsula
C. Rodriguez-Puebla, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain; and L. A. Garcia-Casado, M. D. Frías, J. Saenz, and J. Zubillaga

Poster PDF (625.1 kB)
 
P1.10
Using a parallel climate model to investigate hydrological feedbacks in the climate system

 
Using CERES Data to Study Climate Change
Susan E. Sorlie, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA

 
Using weather generators and agroclimate indices for climate change impact assessments
Henry N. Hayhoe, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and D. R. Lapen

Poster PDF (245.7 kB)
 
Variability of severe winters in the Mexico basin during the XXth century
Ernesto Jáuregui, National Univ. Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and E. Luyando and M. Casasola

Poster PDF (144.5 kB)
 
Regional precipitation variations and atmospheric conditions over the Sand Hills region of Nebraska
Mark R. Anderson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. M. Rowe and J. W. Kaiser

Poster PDF (855.7 kB)
 
A comparison of the weather in U.S. cities during the 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Nino's
Heather L. Honnette, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith

Poster PDF (18.2 kB)
 
A New Global Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data Set
Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson, P. Y. Groisman, D. R. Easterling, R. S. Vose, and D. S. Ezell

 
An integrated assessment of land cover change, long-term climate variability, and land use in the Southern Aral Sea region
Elena Tsvetsinskaya, Boston University, Boston, MA; and E. V. Glushko and B. I. Vainberg

 
Climate Data at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences DAAC
George N. Serafino, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. P. Ahmad

Poster PDF (110.2 kB)
 
P1.19
ENSO-Model response to observed estimates of stochastic forcing

 
Impacts of ENSO on United States snowfall frequencies
Jillien M. Patten, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. R. Smith and J. J. O'Brien

 
P1.21
Initiation of El Nino and its impact on paleo-climate

 
Interactions of monsoons and subtropical anticyclones
Todd D. Ringler, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

 
Investigation of Seasonal Sea-Ice Thickness Variability in the Ross Sea
Beth Schellenberg, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and T. L. DeLiberty, C. A. Geiger, J. Silberman, and A. P. Worby

Poster PDF (208.8 kB)
 
ISCCP Data Available for Climate Variability Research
Susan Haberer, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. L. Morris and N. A. Ritchey

Poster PDF (112.8 kB)
 
MODIS Cloud, Aerosol, and Water Vapor Products for Climate and Global Change Studies
Suraiya P. Ahmad, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. D. King, J. V. Koziana, G. G. Leptoukh, G. N. Serafino, and A. K. Sharma

Poster PDF (125.6 kB)
 
On the Pacific Ocean regime shift
Catherine A. Stephens, NOAA/NODC, Silver Spring, Maryland; and S. Levitus, J. Antonov, and T. P. Boyer

 
Overview of PCMDI's software system
Charles Doutriaux, PCMDI/LLNL, Livermore, CA; and D. N. Williams and PCMDI software team

 
Data and products available at the Surface Reference Data Center
Michael D. Klatt, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey and J. S. Greene

 
Urban effects on regional surface temperature series in South Korea
Youngeun Choi, METRI, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and K. Y. Nam, W. -. T. Kwon, and I. C. Shin

Poster PDF (30.3 kB)
 
Downscaled Regional Climate Simulations for the Mid-Atlantic States Using RAMS
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and G. Stenchikov and A. Robock

Poster PDF (561.7 kB)
 
Measuring and Modeling NO Emissions from Biosolid Amended Soils
Paul A. Roelle, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and V. P. Aneja


7
Climate Model Diagnostics: Variability
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Don Johnson, University of Wisconsin

Papers:
  2:00 PM
7.1
Should we expect climate models to converge when we increase resolution?
Vicky Pope, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and R. Stratton

  2:30 PM
7.2
NAO Validation in Climate Models
Mark J. Rodwell, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

  3:00 PM
7.3
Diagnosing the sensitivity of extratropical subseasonal variability to tropical forcing in different GCMs
Matthew Newman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Winkler and P. D. Sardeshmukh

  3:15 PM
7.4
Evaluating GCMs using Diurnal Variability
Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

2:00 PM-4:59 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


8
Interannual Variability II: Observational Studies
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: C. Bruce Baker, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:
  2:00 PM
8.1
Bias corrections for historic sea surface temperatures based on marine air temperatures
Thomas M. Smith, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Reynolds

  2:15 PM
8.2
An Improved In Situ and Satellite SST Analysis
Richard W. Reynolds, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang

Poster PDF (113.6 kB)
  2:30 PM
8.3
Threshold sea surface temperature for initiation of convection
Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and J. E. Meyerson

  2:45 PM
8.4
Examining the effect of Concurrent SST anomalies on Caribbean Rainfall
Jacqueline M. Spence, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica; and M. A. Taylor

Poster PDF (66.8 kB)
 
8.5
The influence of Sahel rainfall on the summer circulation of the North Atlantic

  3:15 PM
8.6
The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. B. Goldenberg, A. M. Mestas-Nunez, and W. M. Gray

  3:30 PM
8.7
Analyzing and Understanding Climate Variability in the Caribbean Islands
Tannecia S. Stephenson, University of the West Indies, Kingtson, Jamaica; and A. A. Chen

Poster PDF (124.7 kB)
  3:45 PM
8.8
Modulation of Seasonal Precipitation in northern Venezuela and Antecedent Rinfall to the Floods and Landslides of December 1999
Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY

Poster PDF (168.4 kB)
  4:00 PM
8.9
The Influence of the tropical Atlantic vs. the tropical Pacific on Caribbean Rainfall
Michael A. Taylor, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica; and D. B. Enfield and A. A. Chen

 
8.10
Significance of the Interannual Seesaw between the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows in the Interannual Variability over the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere

  4:15 PM
Wet Versus Dry Periods in the Midwest During January 1998 (El Nino) and January 1999 (La Nina)
Dayton G. Vincent, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Giovannettone, A. Lese, J. Adolphson, S. Lashley, S. O'Conner, B. O'Hara, T. Reaugh, and G. Lamberty

  4:30 PM
Multi-scale variability of the river runoff system in East Asia and its long-term link to precipitation variability
Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. -. F. Sun, K. -. M. W. Lau, and J. Ji

  4:45 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 4
Land Atmposphere Interactions: Part II (Joint with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Hydrology; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC

Papers:
 
J4.1
Impact of surface conditions on the North American Monsoon simulations

  3:15 PM
Basin-scale hydrologic budgets from ERA-40 for the Mississippi, Mackenzie and Amazon rivers
Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT; and P. A. Viterbo

  3:30 PM
Coupled climate-runoff simulations: a process study of current and a warmer climate in the Rhine basin
Jan Kleinn, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Frei, J. Gurtz, P. L. Vidale, and C. Schär

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)
  3:45 PM
The Effects of Implementing TOPMODEL Concepts in the NOAH Model
C. D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Poster PDF (307.3 kB)
  4:00 PM
The effect of errors in snow assimilation on land surface modeling
Brian A. Cosgrove, SAIC and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser

  4:15 PM
Modeling the impact of Irrigation on mid-summer Surface Energy Budget and the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) in the U.S. High Plains
Jimmy O. Adegoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., J. L. Eastman, R. Mahmood, and K. G. Hubbard

  4:30 PM
Evaluation of ETA Model Atmospheric Water Budget Components from MOdel Location Time Series (MOLTS)
Evgeney S. Yarosh, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. W. Higgins

  4:45 PM
Influence of hydrologic memory on terrestrial impacts of ENSO
Praveen Kumar, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. Chen

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)
  5:00 PM
Coffee Break in the Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


9
Climate Model Diagnostics: Clouds and Radiation, Part I
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Gerald Potter, LLNL

Papers:
  4:01 PM
9.2
Cloud structure anomalies over the tropical Pacific during the 1997/98 El Nino
Robert D. Cess, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. H. Zhang, P. H. Wang, and B. A. Wielicki

  4:30 PM
9.3
Characteristics of Cloud Radiative Forcing Over East Asia
Wei-Chyung Wang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. -. S. Kau, H. -. H. Hsu, and C. -. H. Tu

  4:45 PM
9.4
Validating the Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks in NCAR CCM3
Lianzeng Liang, State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Beijing, China

  5:00 PM
9.5
Study of Large Ensemble of Cloud Systems from EOS Satellite Observations for Cloud Model Evaluation
Kuan-Man Xu, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong, L. Parker, B. A. Wielicki, D. A. Randall, M. Branson, D. H. Wang, and B. Barkstrom

Poster PDF (35.8 kB)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 5
Statistical Downscaling (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of Califonia

Papers:
  4:00 PM
Sensitivity of Climate Change Estimates Using Statistical Downscaling to the Method and Predictors
Radan Huth, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic

  4:15 PM
Modeling stochastic structure of daily temperature as downscaling of GCM fields
Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. G. Craig

  4:30 PM
A spatial time series framework for modeling daily precipitation at regional scales
Phaedon C. Kyriakidis, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and N. L. Miller and J. Kim

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)
  5:00 PM
North Atlantic Ocean Wave Climate Change Scenarios
Xiaolan L. Wang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and V. R. Swail

  5:15 PM
Possible climate change impacts on ozone in the Great Lakes Region: Some implications for respiratory illness
Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. P. J. Scott and M. L. Wilson

Poster PDF (265.6 kB)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Sessions End for the Day

Wednesday, 16 January 2002

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Wed 16 Jan

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


President's Symposium

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


President's Symposium (Continued)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


10
Climate Model Diagnostics: Clouds and Radiation, Part II
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Gerald Potter, LLNL

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Direct radiative forcing due to absorbing aerosols
V.K. Saxena, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. -. S. Im

  1:45 PM
Radiative Forcing of Tropical Anvil Clouds
Bing Lin, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki, L. H. Chambers, Y. Hu, and K. M. Xu

  2:00 PM
Measurements of Radiative Forcing Beneath Clouds from Greenhouse Gas
W. F. J. Evans, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin

Poster PDF (95.9 kB)
  2:15 PM
A Simple Moist Model of the Hadley and Walker Circulation: Role of Cloud Radiative Forcing
Baijun Tian, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and V. Ramanathan

  2:30 PM
A cloud resolving model as a cloud parameterization in a GCM: Preliminary results
Marat F. Khairoutdinov, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

  2:45 PM
Effects of multiple scattering and cloud inhomogeneity on IR radiative transfer
Everette Joseph, Howard University, Washington, DC; and Q. Min


11
Monsoons: Observational and Modeling Studies, Part I
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Henry F. Diaz, NOAA/CDC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
On the Origin of Monsoons
Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen

Poster PDF (170.8 kB)
  1:45 PM
Monsoon predictability of ECMWF ensemble seasonal simulations
Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan

Poster PDF (235.8 kB)
  2:00 PM
The interseasonal variability of Asian summer monsoon
P. L. S. Rao, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India

  2:15 PM
The Observed Relationship between Snow Cover, Soil Moisture, and the Asian Monsoon
Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and M. Mu, K. Y. Vinnikov, and D. A. Robinson

Poster PDF (202.5 kB)
  2:30 PM
Projected Future Changes in South Asian Monsoon Climate
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Arblaster

  2:45 PM
Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs
Man Li C. Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, I. S. Kang, and D. Waliser

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Joint Session 7
Joint session with the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Potential Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and W. Stern, C. Jones, and W. K. M. Lau

Poster PDF (62.3 kB)
  1:45 PM
Persistent locally coupled anomalies in the ocean-atmosphere
Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay and M. Cai

Poster PDF (576.5 kB)
  2:00 PM
Inter-decadal storm track variations as seen in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and radiosonde observations
Nili Harnik, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. K. M. Chang

  2:15 PM
  2:30 PM
Feasibility of reanalysis before the radiosonde era
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and P. D. Sardeshmukh

  2:45 PM
  3:00 PM
Design of the framework of high-resolution global atmospheric models
Bin Wang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

  3:15 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

1:30 PM-4:44 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Joint Session 6
Surface/Atmosphere Interactions Part I: (Joint between 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and 16th Conference on Hydrology)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; and the 16th Conference on Hydrology )
Organizers: Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California; Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
A Retrospective and Outlook for GCIP/GAPP Contributions to Land Surface and Land-Atmosphere Modeling
Richard G. Lawford, NOAA/Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD

Poster PDF (45.1 kB)
  2:00 PM
Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?
Robert J. Oglesby, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and S. Marshall, D. J. Erickson III, J. O. Roads, and F. R. Robertson

  2:15 PM
Evaluating the Impact of Realistic Land Conditions in Dynamical Seasonal Predictions
C. Adam Schlosser, COLA, Calverton, MD; and P. A. Dirmeyer

Poster PDF (238.5 kB)
 
J6.4
Does landsurface matter in weather and climate?

  2:30 PM
Investigation of deep soil temperature-atmosphere interaction in North America
Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and L. Yi, M. Ruml, and R. Vasic

  2:45 PM
Preliminary Analysis of Coupled Land-Atmosphere Interactions in AMIP II Simulations
Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and P. Irannejad, A. Henderson-Sellers, K. McGuffie, E. Clayton, and S. Sharmeen

  3:15 PM
The impact of soil moisture initialization on seasonal precipitation forecasts
Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez and L. Tyahla

  3:45 PM
Weekly to Monthly Predictability of the Early-Summer Precipitation in the LSA-East
Da-Lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and W. Zheng and Y. Xue

Poster PDF (118.1 kB)
  4:00 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

  4:15 PM
Exhibit Hours 3:00–7:30 p.m.

3:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


13
Using ARM and Other Sources for Diagnostics
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Ric Cedarwall, LLNL

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Examining model sensitivities to cloud microphysics using a single-column model, NCEP forecasts and ARM data
Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville

Poster PDF (193.3 kB)
  4:00 PM
Variability in Tropical Broadband Radiation Budget: Observations versus Modeled Results
Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki, F. R. Robertson, J. Susskind, H. Jacobowitz, R. Allan, A. Slingo, D. A. Randall, B. J. Soden, C. T. Gordon, J. Kiehl, and S. K. Yang

  4:15 PM
The variability of cirrus clouds derived from 4 years of ARM data; relationships to the large-scale meteorology
Erik N. Vernon, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. G. Mace

Poster PDF (197.6 kB)
  4:30 PM
Convection and Large-scale Quasi-equilibrium in Midlatitude Continental Environment
Guang J. Zhang, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

 
13.5
Evaluation of the Entraining-Detraining Plume Model applied to the cumulus parameterization of the large-scale model

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


12
Climate Change Modeling
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Brian Eder, EPA

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcings
Anthony J. Broccoli, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, T. R. Knutson, and R. J. Stouffer

  3:45 PM
Solar Variability and Climate System Response in Ensemble Simulations of 20th Century Climate
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Washington, T. M. L. Wigley, J. M. Arblaster, and A. Dai

  4:00 PM
Uncertainty Analysis of Global Climate Change Projections
Chris E. Forest, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. D. Webster, J. M. Reilly, A. P. Sokolov, P. H. Stone, H. D. Jacoby, and R. G. Prinn

Poster PDF (60.7 kB)
  4:15 PM
Polar climate and sea ice in coupled NCAR GCMs and in recent observations
John W. Weatherly, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab, Hanover, NH

  4:30 PM
North Atlantic Ocean response to future anthropogenic forcing in a coupled GCM
Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and W. G. Strand

Poster PDF (789.0 kB)
  4:45 PM
Stationary Wave Responses to Climate Change in the GFDL GCM
Mingfang Ting, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. Joseph and P. J. Kushner

  5:00 PM
On the mechanism of the enhanced greenhouse effect: a radiative and dynamical perspective
J. Ray Bates, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

  5:15 PM
A comparison of the behavior of different AOGCMs in transient climate change experiments
Andrei Sokolov, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and C. Forest and P. Stone

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Sessions end for the day

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Reception (Cash Bar)

Thursday, 17 January 2002

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Thur 17 Jan

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


14
Monsoons: Observational and Modeling Studies, Part II
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Sharon Leduc, NOAA/NCDC

Papers:
 
14.1
The impact of SST anomalies on the interannual variability of the North American monsoon

  8:31 AM
Frequency analysis of intraseasonal variations in the North American Monsoon System
Eileen A. Hall-McKim, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. Nolin, F. Lo, M. Serreze, and M. Clark

Poster PDF (57.8 kB)
  8:45 AM
Diagnostics of the Summer Circulation Changes over North America at Seasonal and Interannual Time Scales
Renu Joseph, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. Ting and H. Wang

  9:00 AM
La Niña impact on summer monsoon in Brazil
Alice M. Grimm, Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil

Poster PDF (25.7 kB)
  9:15 AM
Interannual variability of the West African monsoon in the NCEP SFM and reanalysis
Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Kanamitsu and V. Kumar

  9:30 AM
Contrasting characteristics of the 1993 and 1994 East Asian summer monsoon: Observation and simulation
Wen-Shung Kau, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. -. H. Hsu and R. -. T. Chen

Poster PDF (306.0 kB)
  9:45 AM
Land-sea heating contrast in an idealized Asian summer monsoon
Chia Chou, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

  10:15 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Sesssion Room

8:30 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


15
Climate Model Diagnostics: AMIP
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Curt Covey, LLNL

Papers:
  8:30 AM
The Atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP): progress and plans
Peter J. Gleckler, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. E. Taylor

Poster PDF (140.7 kB)
  9:00 AM
Coupled ocean-atmosphere vs. prescribed-SST simulations: effect of a "perfect ocean"
Curt Covey, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and K. M. AchutaRao, P. J. Gleckler, K. E. Taylor, and M. F. Wehner

http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip

Poster PDF (17.9 kB)
  9:15 AM
Summertime Intraseasonal Variability in the AMIP Simulations
Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and W. -. S. Kau and J. -. L. Chu

Poster PDF (193.7 kB)
  9:30 AM
Assessment of atmospheric angular momentum parameters in AMIP-2 simulations
David A. Salstein, AER, Lexington, MA; and R. D. Rosen, J. O. Dickey, and S. L. Marcus

  9:45 AM
Tropospheric Temperature Sensitivity from the AMIP II Experiment
Justin Jay Hnilo, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. R. Christy

  10:00 AM
Diagnostic analyses of short-term climate variability in NASA/GSFC general circulation models
Robert X. Black, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and D. P. Robinson

Poster PDF (6.6 kB)
  10:15 AM
  10:30 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

8:30 AM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Joint Session 8
Surface/Atmosphere Interactions: Part I (Joint with 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and 16th Conference on Hydrology)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations; and the 16th Conference on Hydrology )
Organizers: Yongkang Xue, University of California; Randall D. Koster, NASA/GSFC

Papers:
  8:30 AM
Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in Amazonia
Carlos A. Nobre, Brazilian Weather and Climate Forecasting Center, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil

  9:00 AM
Interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors in Amazon rainfall
Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and T. -. C. Chen and K. J. St. Croix

  9:15 AM
The Local and Global Effects of Amazon Deforestation
David Werth, Duke University, Durham, NC; and R. Avissar

  9:30 AM
Human influences on the global climate system—The first order effect of landuse change and landscape dynamics
Roger A. Pielke Sr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. N. Chase, J. L. Eastman, and M. Coughenour

  10:00 AM
Modeling the impact of the Amazon deforestation in South American climate with the Eta/SSiB model
Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Laboratorio Nacional de Computacao Cientifica, Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and S. C. Chou and Y. Xue

  10:15 AM
Impact of Land-Use Management Practices in Florida on the Regional Climate of South Florida and the Everglades
Curtis H. Marshall Jr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., L. T. Steyaert, T. M. Cronin, D. A. Willard, J. W. Jones, T. J. Smith III, and J. R. Irons

Poster PDF (112.3 kB)
  10:30 AM
Influence of land use on the regional climate of southwest Australia
Deepak K. Ray, Foretsry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana; and U. S. Nair, R. M. Welch, W. Su, and T. Kikuchi

Poster PDF (103.9 kB)
  10:45 AM
Sensitivity of great floods to radiatively forced climate change
P. C. D. Milly, USGS, Princeton, NJ; and R. T. Wetherald, T. L. Delworth, and K. A. Dunne

  11:15 AM
Uncertainty analysis of California streamflow using multiple climate change scenarios
Norman L. Miller, Univ. of Calfornia, Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, CA; and K. E. Bashford

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)
  11:30 AM
Effects of mesoscale terrain on climate change signal in the western U.S
Jinwon Kim, University of California, Los Angeles, CA

  11:45 AM
Summer Dryness and Greenhouse Warming: A Process Study for the Midwestern United States
Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and J. S. Pal, E. A. B. Eltahir, and C. Schär

Poster PDF (93.0 kB)
  12:00 PM
Simulating Carbon and Energy Exchanges over the Amazonia using a photosynthesis model within SSiB
Dev dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. Xue, X. Zhan, and G. J. Collatz

Poster PDF (434.8 kB)
  12:15 PM
Climate, carbon and the boreal ecosystem
Forrest G. Hall, NASA/GSFC, Beltsville, MD; and A. K. Betts, S. Frolking, R. Brown, J. Chen, S. Halldin, D. P. Lettenmaier, and J. Schafer

  12:45 PM
Impact of remotely sensed land surface variables on simulations of energy
Stephen D. Prince, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Xue, J. S. Borak, S. O. Los, and A. C. Gleason

  1:00 PM
Improving the representation of arid regions of northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula in climate models by incorporating MODIS derived surface albedo
Elena Tsvetsinskaya, Boston University, Boston, MA; and C. Schaaf, F. Gao, A. Strahler, R. E. Dickinson, and X. Zeng

  1:15 PM
  1:45 PM
Improving the Representation of Snow Processes in Global Climate Models
Zong-Liang Yang, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and G. Y. Niu

  2:00 PM
Modeling Crop Growth Using Modified NCAR LSM 1.0
Guo-Yue Niu, University of Arizona, Tucson,, AZ; and Z. L. Yang

  2:15 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  2:45 PM
Lunch Break

  4:15 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

  4:44 PM
Exhibit Hours 3:00–6:15 p.m.

10:30 AM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


16
Interannual Variability III: Observational Studies
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Richard W. Reynolds, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:
  10:30 AM
  10:45 AM
Ongoing drought in southwest Asia: The role of large-scale climate variability and the tropical oceans
Mathew A. Barlow, International /Research Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and H. Cullen and B. Lyon

  11:00 AM
Relationships between ENSO and the statistics of precipitation extremes in Brazil
Wei Shi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. W. Higgins and E. Yarosh

  11:15 AM
Observations of Atlantic Convergence Zones by QuikSCAT and TRMM
Xiaosu Xie, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu

  11:30 AM
  11:45 AM
The Response of Tropical Precipitation to ENSO
Wesley Berg, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Kummerow

Poster PDF (251.4 kB)
 
16.7
Relationships between climate variability and the statistics of winter precipitation extremes in the United States

 
16.8
Impact of snow variability on the remote response to ENSO over North America

  12:02 PM
Interannual variability of snowfall events and snowfall-to-liquid water amounts in Southwest Missouri
Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and D. Albert, R. Hearst, C. Allmeyer, and P. S. Market

Poster PDF (35.4 kB)
  12:16 PM
Interdecadal variations in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks
Edmund K. M. Chang, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

 
16.11
The climatology and interannual variability of satellite-observed precipitation in the Pan American region

  12:31 PM
Global oceanic precipitation from 1948 to the present: A reconstruction of historical gauge observations
Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chen, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and T. M. Smith

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)
  12:46 PM
Decadal variability in tropical Pacific climate
James Carton, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and K. C. Mo

Poster PDF (14.1 kB)
  1:01 PM
  1:16 PM
Putting the 1997–98 El Nino in historical perspective
N. K. Larkin, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison

  1:31 PM
Lunch Break

  3:00 PM
Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


17
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

Papers:
  11:00 AM

3:00 PM-6:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


16
Interannual Variability III: Observational Studies, cont.
Sponsor: 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC

Papers:
  3:30 PM
Wind speed and direction analyses for a group of southeast surface stations
Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and R. L. Buckley, M. J. Parker, and M. E. Brown

  3:45 PM
A Soil Moisture Analysis of the Drought of 1998 using the Oklahoma Mesonet
Brad G. Illston, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara and K. C. Crawford

  4:00 PM
  4:15 PM
The Diurnal Cycle of Dew Point Across Oklahoma's Winter Wheat Belt
Matthew J. Haugland, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford

Poster PDF (5.5 MB)

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Closing Event Begins

5:00 PM-6:15 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

5:15 PM-5:15 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Symposium Ends

6:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Event Presentation

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


9
Tropical Party