Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 9:00 AM
Evidence for a recent advance in the timing of a surface-air warming
The timing of the abrupt increase in daily temperatures over the
north-central United States, which frequently occurs during the
second half of February, has tended to occur about a week earlier
during the 24 years of available data since 1975 (i.e., 1976-99)
than in the previous period of equal length (1952-1975). The end
of February coincides roughly with the beginning of rapid snowmelt
in central North America, and also with a time of year identified
by others as the "termination of winter" or the end of "hard winter."
Spatial analysis suggests a tendency for changes in synoptic-scale
phenomena during the 10 calendar days from February 15-24;
specifically, for those calendar days, a synoptic-scale pattern
of temperature change is centered in Northern Minnesota, where
increases in daily minimum temperature from the earlier period
(1952-75) to the later one (1976-99) average around 15F. These
results provide additional evidence that a tendency for climatic
warming is becoming evident in the annual cycle of synoptic events.
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