Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 9:45 AM
Diagnosing the anthropogenically-forced signal in a coupled climate model
The effects of anthropogenic forcing on the coupled climate
system is a topic of great current interest. The first
efforts along these lines have, naturally enough, been in
terms of the widely-known observed record of global surface temperatures. As coupled models increase in sophistication
it becomes useful to create more detailed and robust
measures of the climate system's response. One such
measure is the total global heat content of the world
oceans, which (due to its integrative nature) is both
sensitive and low-noise. State-of-the-art simulations using
the parallel coupled model (PCM) show an increase in global
ocean heat content very close to that observed over the
past 50 years. Additional diagnostics of the surface heat
budget show that this increase comes about as one would
expect for increased atmospheric CO2, i.e., by an increased
downward longwave heat flux from the atmosphere to the
oceans that is fairly uniform globally, and drives a
contemperaneous increase in ocean heat content. The
relatively good observed record over North America also
allows comparison of observed and model EOFs of variability
in that region for surface temperature and precipitation.
Additionally, we describe new model diagnostic techniques
specifically targeted to the climate change problem,
whereby the model directly calculates as it is running the
probability density functions (PDFs) of variables, such as
precipitation, whose PDFs must otherwise be obtained by
saving at subdaily intervals and postprocessing. Having
the model direclty accumulate the PDFs results in a
substantial storage savings, making examination of PDF
changes much easier and more practical.
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