Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 10:45 AM
A dynamical feedback in the climate system: analysis of stability and sensitivity of an atmospheric GCM coupled to oceanic upper mixed layer
This work represents a continuation of a series of papers
(Bates, 1999, Tellus, 51A, 349-372, Alexeev and Bates, 1999,
Tellus, 51A, 630-651.) devoted to studying the dynamical
feedback associated with the angular momentum (AM) transport
in the atmosphere and the surface winds and evaporation it
induces. In the current paper we analyze stability and
sensitivity of an idealized climate system consisting of an
atmospheric GCM with aquaplanet boundary conditions coupled
to an oceanic upper mixed layer. There is no seasonal cycle
in the solar radiation which is taken to be symmetric about
the equator. The system is run until it reaches a quasi-
equilibrium climate. We introduce a linear surface budget
response operator, representing the climatological response
of the surface budget to small SST perturbations around the
equilibrium climate. Stability of the system is defined in
terms of the properties of this operator. If the eigenmode
system of the operator is complete and real parts of the
eigenvalues are negative, the system is stable. The
importance of different components of the surface budget for
the stability of the system is analyzed. We use the surface
budget response operator to assess the sensitivity of the
system to the doubling of concentration of CO2. The least
stable eigenmode of the operator resembles the global
warming pattern and the surface winds play an important role
in determining its shape. To test the approach we apply an
external forcing to the system in the form of a doubling of
CO2 and integrate the system until it reaches a new
equilibrium climate. The results compare very well with the
linear estimate of the response to doubling CO2 obtained
using the surface budget response operator. The importance
of different components of the system in determining the
final equilibrium climate is studied. After that we fix the
surface winds at their climatic values in order to eliminate
the wind factor from the evaporation and repeat the whole
procedure again. The response of the system to the increase
of CO2 in this case is weaker and it has a different shape.
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