Wednesday, 16 January 2002: 2:30 PM
Projected Future Changes in South Asian Monsoon Climate
Previous climate change experiments
with increased CO2 have shown greater
mean south Asian monsoon precipitation and increased interannual variability.
Confirming those previous results for an increase of CO2,
the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), a global coupled climate model, shows
greater mean south Asian
monsoon precipitation and increased interannual variability.
An ensemble of atmospheric
model (NCAR CCM3) AMIP2-type sensitivity experiments
with specified warmer tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs
is analyzed to explore the mechanisms of these changes. Results show
greater mean monsoon precipitation is due to increased moisture source
from the warmer Indian Ocean. Additionally,
increased south Asian
monsoon interannual variability is mainly due to warmer mean
tropical Pacific SSTs and the non-linear relationship
between SST and evaporation. For a given interannual SST fluctuation
with warmer mean SSTs, there is enhanced evaporation and precipitation
variability that is communicated
via the Walker Circulation to the south Asian monsoon
to increase interannual monsoon precipitation variability there
(even with no change in interannual SST variability in the Pacific).
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