Tuesday, 15 January 2002
Trend and interannual variations in air temperature over the Iberian peninsula
The interest in obtaining climate predictions motivates this study which seeks to learn about the associations between ocean and atmosphere with surface air temperature over the Iberian peninsula. The mean, minimum and maximum air temperature were analized and significant increasing trend were identified in maximum winter temperature and in minimum summer temperature, which were related to circulation patterns and sea surface temperature. The results suggested that the atmospheric variability such as the East Atlantic pattern and the North Annular Mode modulate the winter temperature variations; however the summer temperature variations could be explained by association with sea surface temperature. These relationships were found by correlation analysis and by comparison of warm and cold years with the circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. We obtained the regions more vulnerable to trend variations by using Empirical Orthogonal Function. The data used are from: the Meteorological Institutes of Spain and Portugal; the Climate Research Unit (Climate Impact Link Project) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (Reanalysis data, climate indices and SST).