Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 3:00 PM
The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications
The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest level of North
Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record. Compared with the
generally low activity of the previous 24 years (1971 to 1994), the
last six years have seen a doubling of overall activity for the whole
basin, a 2.5-fold increase in major hurricanes (>=50 m/s), and a
fivefold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean. The greater
activity is caused by simultaneous increases in North Atlantic sea
surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear, both of
which are known to favor hurricane formation. Because these changes
exhibit a multidecadal time scale, the present high level of hurricane
activity is likely to persist for an additional ~10 to 40 years. The
shift in climate calls for a reevaluation of preparedness and
mitigation strategies.
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