Tuesday, 15 January 2002
ENSO-Model response to observed estimates of stochastic forcing
In this work we examine the role that the
observed intraseasonal variability can play in controlling and
maintaining ENSO variability. To this end, we force an intermediate
coupled model of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with observed
stochastic forcing which is defined as the part of the atmospheric
variability that is apparently uncoupled from the ocean. The stochastic
forcing is estimated from 50 years (1950-2000) of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of
surface winds and net heat flux, 31 years (1950-1981) of reconstructed Sea
Surface Temperatures (SST) and 19 years (1982-2000) of Reynolds SST in the
Tropical Pacific. The part of the surface atmospheric variability that can
be linearly related to variations of SST is estimated using the singular
value decomposition of the covariance between the atmospheric fields (wind
or heat flux) and the SST, and is then substracted from the atmospheric data
to recover the stochastic component of the ocean surface forcing. Principal
component analysis of the stochastic component shows no preferred mode of
variability, exhibits decorrelation times of a few days, and has a spectrum
that is indistinguishable from red noise. A 50-year stochastically-forced
model integration shows some similarities with the observed equatorial SST.
The robustness of this result is checked by performing different sensitivity
experiments. Using the ideas of generalized stability theory, the
dynamically important contributions of the stochastic forcing are isolated
from the rest and it is shown that most of the variability in the
stochastically forced run is produced by stochastically-induced Kelvin waves
in the western Pacific. The free parameters of the model are chosen so that
the coupled system is asymptotically stable (with a decay time of about 3
years). Therefore, these results support the hypothesis that a significant
fraction of ENSO variability may be due to stochastic forcing.
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