Monday, 14 January 2002: 3:44 PM
Using AWIPS and VORTEX findings to forecast qualitative probability of significant tornadoes
One of the biggest challenges currently facing a National Weather Service
operational forecaster is the decision to warn or not to warn for a tornado. The
NWS 88-D radar has enabled forecasters to clearly observe mesocyclones within
thunderstorms, but resolution of the actual tornado is seldom possible due to the
relatively small scale of the tornadic circulation. The national false alarm ratio
(FAR) for tornado warnings in 2000 was 65%, and the National Weather Service
has identified the reduction of tornado warning FAR as a primary goal. Recent
research results published by Dr. Paul Markowski from the VORTEX experiment
have given exciting new clues as to the possible ingredients for significant
tornadoes. Many of these clues can be forecasted, directly observed, or inferred
using AWIPS. It is likely that by using Dr. Markowski's research combined with
AWIPS that operational forecasters have the opportunity to significantly improve
the skill of tornado warnings.
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