17TH Conference on Hydrology
Impacts of Water Variability: Benefits and Challenges


Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill for selected tropical cyclone forecast models during Hurricane Irene (1999)

David A. Robertson, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

The purpose of this study is to investigate quantitative precipitation forecast [QPF] skill for operational models routinely used for tropical cyclone forecasting. The case of Hurricane Irene (1999) is explored using both the AVN and GFDL model forecasts. Model-forecasted precipitation amounts are verified using surface rainfall observations and TRMM satellite data. Individual model performance is evaluated relative to the Rainfall - CLimatology and PERsistence model (R-CLIPER) developed by Marks (2002) and using the current operational methodology for tropical storm rainfall forecasts. Finally, the skill will be scrutinized in light of the track forecast error.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (180K)

Joint Poster Session 3, Flood Hydrology Management and Information Systems Posters (JOINT WITH THE SYMP ON IMPACTS OF WATER VARIABILITY: BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES and the 17th Conference on Hydrology)
Tuesday, 11 February 2003, 9:45 AM-11:00 AM

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