19th Conference on IIPS


Severe weather prediction using the graphical forecast editor

Charles H. Paxton, NOAA/NWSFO, Ruskin, FL; and J. T. Deese, J. C. McMichael, P. R. Close, C. Hartnett, and J. A. States

This paper describes a series of techniques, using the National Weather Service's Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), to improve the severe weather recognition process. The GFE, developed by the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, provides an integrated system to access, analyze, and graphically edit forecast model data. Scripting capability is built in to permit data manipulations and calculations for deriving fields not available from the model data. A detailed analysis of National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area, Ruskin, Florida WSR-88D radar and sounding data for severe weather events from1994 through 2000 provides many important correlations for severe weather recognition. The severe weather events were stratified into hail, damaging wind, tornado, and waterspout categories. The GFE scripting capability is utilized to survey vertical model sounding data with the results from the severe weather and sounding correlations in an automated GFE environment. This provides a daily briefing of likely severe weather scenarios in areal graphic form. When thresholds are met, product specific color curves highlight threat levels. This GFE methodology of automated severe weather recognition has distinct time savings and enhanced viewing perspective advantages over manual analysis on a single sounding. The aforementioned radar analysis project also correlates changes in radar data from volume scan to volume scan to severe weather occurrence. With future access to WSR-88D radar data in GFE, automated scripts will check for temporal and spatial severe weather trends in radar data.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (424K)

Session 12, AWIPS Part II
Thursday, 13 February 2003, 8:30 AM-12:15 PM

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