Others have found that a long-term warming trend in much of the west has led to an earlier spring freshet in many unregulated river basins. These trends are a complex mixture of natural climate variability (temperature and precipitation) and regional warming trends at longer time scales associated with climate change. In large snow melt dominated river basins such as the Columbia River basin in the Pacific Northwest, the first indications of global warming are not likely to be discernible in streamflow observations, but rather should be observed as a loss of winter snowpack in the relatively small areas of the basin where winter temperatures are close to freezing much of the time. We hypothesize that statistically significant trends in snowpack in these sensitive areas may already be discernible given the moderate warming that has been observed over the 20th century. These changes may provide early warning of climate change impacts and opportunities for long-term climate monitoring. We evaluate, by comparing long-term streamflow records as observed and as simulated by VIC, whether such trends exist in the Columbia River basin, and runoff generating source areas that are most responsible for observed trends.
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