Tuesday, 11 February 2003: 5:15 PM
Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO—a seasonally varying relationship
Using observational datasets and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that
interannual variability of rainfall in the Euro-Mediterranean sector is
significantly influenced by ENSO in a way that is seasonally varying. Spatially
coherent correlation patterns are found in central and eastern Europe during
winter and spring, and in western Europe and the Mediterranean region during
autumn and spring.
A composite analysis of ENSO events indicates that during an El Nino western
Mediterranean rainfall has a 10% increase (decrease) in the autumn preceeding
(spring after) the mature phase of an event, corresponding to a rainy season
arriving (retreating) earlier compared to the climatology. The atmospheric
reanalyses show that an anomalous
atmospheric circulation and moisture transport extending from the Atlantic
Ocean into the Euro-Mediterranean region accompanies the observed rainfall
anomalies. Multidecadal variations characterize the ENSO Euro-Mediterranean
relationship during the 20th century.
Supplementary URL: