Evaluating and predicting hydrologic variability (especially under uncertain and potentially straining conditions of climate change) is an essential part in the management of water resources. In terms of hydrologic forecasting, ensemble streamflow prediction methods provide a means of incorporating historical climatic forcing variability and uncertainty in modeling and forecasting reservoir inflows. The effective incorporation of these ensemble forecasts in operational water resources management is an important issue of research. An integrated forecast-control methodology for reservoir hydrosystems is presented. This methodology is applied to the management of Folsom Lake reservoir in Northern California. Included are components for the generation of ensemble reservoir inflow forecasts and for reservoir management and decision-support. An additional component allows for the downscaling and incorporation of global climate model (GCM) simulations and forecasts into the ensemble streamflow prediction process. The ensemble streamflow prediction component includes hydrologic modeling based on current operational models and databases, and considers both atmospheric-forcing and hydrologic-model uncertainties. In a retrospective study for the period 1964-1993, an intercomparison of various formulations for components of the integrated forecast-control system in terms of forecast reliability measures and reservoir management performance indices is made. Current operational forecast methods and the integrated forecast-control method applied both with and without the use of GCM information are considered. The present study extents the results presented in Carpenter and K. Georgakakos (2001) and Yao and A. Georgakakos (2001).

References:

Carpenter, T.M., and K.P. Georgakakos, 2001: Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios, 1, Forecasting. Journal of Hydrology: 249, 148-175.

Yao, H., and A. Georgakakos, 2001: Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios, 1, Reservoir management. Journal of Hydrology: 249, 176-196.