Thursday, 13 February 2003: 2:45 PM
Changes in snowmelt runoff over Western North America over the last 5 decades
Although projected near-future precipitation and temperature changes over
western North America are subject to much debate, they are generally
projected to cause widespread reductions in snowpack accumulation and
changes in the timing and intensity of snowmelt-derived streamflow.
These changes would have important
consequences for water resources management, especially for the
western United States where largest contributions to annual streamflow
from mid- and high-altitude basins is from spring snowmelt runoff.
Regionally coherent fluctuations and trends in the timings of both (1)
the start of the spring snowmelt runoff pulse and (2) the "center of mass"
of streamflow (center time) towards earlier in the water year are found
in much of western North America during the past 50 years, using a new
data set combining US (HCDN) and Canadian streamflow records. The
great regional coherency of the observed timing variations suggests
continental- and regional-scale climatic forcings, that are superimposed
upon basin-scale processes. Changes in streamflow timing show strong
correlations with seasonal temperature anomalies syncronized with
the streamflow center time, in the sense that warmer temperatures produce
earlier flow, and vice versa. Also, the changes in timing are correlated
with annual precipitation, in the sense
that higher annual precipitation associates with later streamflow timing,
and vice versa. There are significant links to global climate
variability, with widespread negative
correlations between center timing and both the PNA and PDO indices
throughout the study area, especially in the interior northwestern parts
of the contiguous US, in Canada, and in Alaska. Notably, though,
observed trends in runoff timing are most closely associated with recent
warming trends across western North America.
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