In November 1997, the first version of FSL's Real-Time Verification System (RTVS) was implemented at the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC). Since then, the usefulness of a real-time verification system and it impact on an operational aviation forecast office has become apparent. For the first time, AWC management is able to efficiently monitor and evaluate the accuracy of in-flight aviation weather advisories issued for icing, turbulence, and Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) conditions. In addition to monitoring forecast accuracy over long periods of time, the information provided by the RTVS is prompting changes in procedures for regulating in-flight advisory forecasts. These critical changes are necessary to streamline products to meet end-user (e.g. pilots and airline dispatchers) requirements. For example, verification procedures defined for the convective Significant Meteorological Advisory (SIGMET) led AWC management to closely examine the timeliness, areal extent, and usefulness of the product to its end users.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Product Development Teams (PDTs) who implement forecast guidance products at AWC, are also benefiting from the RTVS. The verification statistics for the in-flight advisories provide a baseline for which model-based algorithms are compared, thereby enabling model developers and forecasters to collectively evaluate the accuracy and operational applicability of the algorithm.
In this presentation, some examples of the uses of the RTVS and how verification is impacting AWC operations will be discussed, as well as future plans for its development.
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology