The maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone represents a theoretical upper limit to the strength of the storm imposed by the laws of physics and the energy available to the system from the atmosphere and upper ocean. Although the maximum potential intensity has been defined and calculated in different ways by different authors, the method proposed by Holland (1997) is used in this research. In this method the cyclone is assumed to consist of an environment, an eyewall and an eye. The calculation of the maximum potential intensity requires a vertical sounding of temperature, the surface pressure and the surface air temperature. The soundings used in this study were taken at Isla Socorro, Mexico (latitude 18.72 N, longitude 110,95 W, WMO 76723) during the period from 1994-97. This location was chosen because the small size of the island should cause only a minor effect on the sounding and the data should provide a good sample of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Although the island is small, there is a pronounced diurnal cycle of the temperatures near the surface. In order to eliminate the effects of surface heating of the land during the daytime, which are quite evident in the 000 UTC soundings, the sea surface temperature minus one Kelvin was used in place of the surface air temperature. Maximum potential intensities were computed for soundings that had at least 13 levels and included a level at 100 mb or higher in the atmosphere. The soundings from Isla Socorro produced reasonable magnitudes for the maximum potential intensity. Case studies were performed for hurricanes Douglas (1996), Guillermo (1997) and Linda (1997), since those hurricanes passed near the island.
REFERENCE
Holland, G.J., 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2519-2541.