We present results from operational numerical forecasts and analyses that were produced by Project Hub-CAPS, a research and development partnership between the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) and American Airlines (AA). During 1998, 12-hour, 27-km forecasts were generated four times per day over the southern Great Plains, with a 9-km storm-scale forecast run at least once each day. The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) was used for the forecasts. Hourly analyses were also generated using the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS); they incorporated a variety of data sources, including mesonet, NIDS, profiler, and MDCRS data.
Forecast performance statistics have been generated in a variety of forms. Terminal forecasts and model output are compared with surface observations. Subjective forecaster comments as well as event-timing (e.g., the time a convective line passed over a certain location) are also considered, in addition to traditional measures such as 500 mb RMS error and precipitation threat scores.
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology