In 1996, two projects were initiated at the University of Oklahoma to address storm-scale numerical weather prediction for the aviation community. Since their inception, these two programs (Projects COMET-Tinker and Hub-CAPS) have collaborated in generating experimental forecasts from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) nonhydrostatic model, for use by Air Force and commercial (American Airlines) aviation forecasters. In addition to numerical model guidance and forecast evaluations, efforts have been made to develop specific aviation impact variable (AIV) products based on the the ARPS forecasts, identifying hazards such as in-flight icing, turbulence, and low-level wind shear.
In this paper a summary of the major AIV products is presented, including precipitation type, icing, and clear-air turbulence. Descriptions of the AIV algorithms are provided, as well as information on the availability of these products via the World Wide Web. Finally, some preliminary verification results are presented, based on comparisons between AIV forecasts and pilot reports archived by Project COMET-Tinker.
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology