The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

P5.14
IS THE METEOROGRAM A FORECASTER'S TOOL FOR FOG AND WIND AT VANDENBERG AFB CA?

Christy Crosiar, 30th Weather Squadron, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA; and S. J. Bradley


The 30th Weather Squadron at Vandenberg AFB CA has Internet access to the Air Force Weather Agency's forecast 'Meteorogram,' based on the Mesoscale Model, Version 5 (MM5). The Meteorogram is a relatively new product, available on the AF Weather Information Network, AFWIN Internet site since June 1998. The Meteorogram consists of a graphical display for Vandenberg that covers a 48-hr forecast in 3-hr increments. Profiles from 1000 to 250mb depict winds, relative humidity, clouds, dewpoint depressions, and temperature. Separate categories of sea level pressure, wind speed and direction at the surface, 3-hr precipitation, Lifted Index, 1000-500 thickness, and temperature, dewpoint and heat index fill out the remainder of the Meteorogram for the 48-hr forecast.
At Vandenberg AFB, the summer, weather conditions are dominated by an ever-present marine layer. Low cloud ceilings, fog, and surface winds are three significant meteorological parameters for forecasters, who support the diverse missions of space launch, airfield, disaster response, and resource protection.
The intent of this study is to determine if the mesoscale-forecast model, the MM5, is providing an accurate, usable tool, in the Meteorogram, for forecasters at Vandenberg. Currently, the forecaster primarily depends on the synoptic model output; the spatial resolution of the Nested Grid Model is 80km and is issued twice a day, 00 and 12Z. The Meteorogram is produced from the MM5 model at a spatial resolution of 36km and a temporal resolution of every 3-hr. A case study for the month of July will allow an initial verification of the Meteorogram, every 6-hours. The Meteorogram forecast parameters will be compared to the actual observations of sky and wind speed and direction. If the Meteorogram successfully captures sky and wind speed and direction, the forecaster's confidence will grow for this product. Additional analyses may then be done to extend the application, to the entire profile to assess launch commit criteria for spacelift and ballistic missile launches.

The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology