The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

11C.7
ENSEMBLE-BASED PRODUCTS TO IMPROVE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

Ensemble forecasting has emerged as a general and practical way to
provide information on the potential reliability of model forecasts,
and to extend the skill of such forecasts to longer lead times.
However, ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone models can be costly,
and model output may not be available to forecasters until long after
their deadlines to make critical forecasts. Simple techniques can
utilize output from the currently available ensemble forecasting system to improve and extend forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks, intensity, and genesis without the expense of additional model runs. Output from such techniques will be discussed with some mention of the potential for ensemble forecasts from the tropical cyclone models themselves.

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology