The Upper Great Lakes region is agriculturally, ecologically, hydrologically, and economically significant. For example, recently Minnesota and Wisconsin were ranked in the top ten nationally regarding agriculture, and Michigan was ranked first in the US in tart cherry production and second in Christmas Tree production. The Great Lakes hold nearly 20% of the world’s fresh water supply, provide water for nearly 42 million people, and form part of the world’s busiest seaway. The Great Lakes are home to 132 endangered species, most of which are found only in the Great Lakes region. The automotive industry is a key contributor to the regional economy.
A three day workshop was held at the University of Michigan in May 1998 to discuss some of the potential consequences of climate change on the Great Lakes region. The workshop was one of 19 workshops that were sponsored by the US Global Change Research Program during 1997-98. With respect to agriculture, water resources, water ecology, land ecology, health, economy, and infrastructure, the Upper Great Lakes workshop addressed four questions: (1) what are the current stresses in the region; (2) how will climate change and climate variability ameliorate or exacerbate these stresses; (3) what additional information is needed to understand better the impacts of climate change and variability in the region; and (4) what are the coping mechanisms that would minimize the (negative) impacts of climate change in the region? The workshop was unique because it brought together stakeholders from industry, government, academia, and environmental groups who had concerns about climate change.
Stakeholders agreed almost unanimously that understanding the impacts of climate change on lake-levels and water quality was tantamount to understanding many other impacts of climate change. Regarding agriculture, stakeholders thought that some crops would benefit from climate change due to a longer, warmer growing season and to carbon dioxide enrichment. Assessing the agricultural impacts of climate change in the Great Lakes region is complicated by the fact that soils in the northern sections of the region are unsuitable for agriculture, and by the prospect of greater pest pressures from insects and diseases. Regarding ecology, stakeholders thought that regional warming (and drying) could increase insect populations and the tendency for forest fires, and decrease coldwater fish populations. Regarding infrastructure, stakeholders thought that regional warming, currently high Great Lakes water levels, and an increased frequency of extreme weather events could have a significant impact on shoreline erosion and on shipping. Regional warming could also shift home energy consumption loads from winter to summer. Regarding the economy, stakeholders thought that regional climate change would not likely affect industry and commerce directly, but secondary impacts of climate change (e.g., rapid and unpredictable changes in economic and environmental policy) could have significant deleterious effects on the auto, papermill, and medical supply industries in the region. Finally, regarding human health, stakeholders thought that regional warming could result in increased vector-borne diseases and weather related fatalities. These and other workshop findings will become part of the US national assessment on climate change.