The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

P5.8
A MARINE STRATUS FORECASTING SYSTEM

F. Wesley Wilson, MIT Lincoln Lab, Lexington, MA; and D. Clark

Dependable, accurate forecasting of the time of dissipation of coastal marine stratus along the West Coast of the United States would provide a significant decision aid to support air traffic management. The Federal Aviation Administration has funded a project to improve marine stratus forecasts at San Francisco International Airport (SFIA). SFIA has the dubious honor of being a leading "delay" airport, and much of this delay is due to marine stratus. This presentation will describe the technologies that are being employed and their potential applications to other ceiling and visibility forecasting problems.

The system under development is based on an amalgamation of several technologies. Each has been used successfully as part of an operational prototype for some ceiling or visibility forecasting system. They have been adapted and tuned to the needs of the marine stratus forecasting problem. In addition, techniques are being developed to optimally combine the information from these diverse technologies. The technologies include tailored interpretation of sensor data, column modeling of the heat budget and cloud dynamics (COBEL), and statistical forecasting (AMOS), which combines model output with observational data. Mesoscale modeling with a 1 Km horizontal scale is being applied in case study analyses, but is not planned for the operational system. Understanding the capabilities of these individual technologies, their strengths, and weaknesses will provide a basis for the development of an intelligent consensus forecast system.

In its initial stages, the goal is a forecast guidance system, an augmentation for a committed forecaster. Automation will proceed as the technology matures.

References:

1. Clark, D.A. and Wilson, F.W. 1997: The San Francisco Marine Stratus Initiative, 7th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, February, 1997, Long Beach, CA.

2. Tardiff, R. and Zwack, P. 1997: Validation of a column boundary layer model (COBEL) using data from the wake vortex field measurement program, 12th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence, July, 1997, Vancouver B.C.

3. Vislocky, R.L. and Fritsch, J.M. 1997: Performance of an Adaptive MOS system in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest, BAMS (78) Dec., 1997.

* This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Government.

+ Opinions, interpretations, conclusions and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Air Force.

The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology