The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

6A.22
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ON GUAM DURING SUPER TYPHOON PAKA - FURTHER ARGUMENTS FOR REASSESSING WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIPS

Charles P. Guard, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and M. A. Lander

On 16 December 1997, Super Typhoon Paka raked the island of Guam with sustained winds estimated to be about 125 knots (1-minute average). Because of the failure and malfunction of key anemometers on the island, the maximum winds had to be assessed indirectly. The determination of the maximum wind depended on an assessment of the available wind measurements, pressure measurements, damage to structures and vegetation, first and second wind tree blow-down patterns, available Doppler radar data, and meteorological satellite imagery. During the typhoon, the anemometer at Andersen Air Force Base indicated a peak gust of 236 knots, a world record, if true. Satellite imagery indicated that the typhoon weakened as it approached Guam and intensified as it moved away after crossing the island. The Doppler radar recorded peak winds of 138 knots at about 1000 feet in the Rota Channel north of the island as the inner eye wall cloud entered the channel and began to collapse. The Doppler radar, unfortunately, then failed. Tree blow-down patterns indicated that more than 90% of the tree falls occurred during the southwesterly and southerly second wind, even at Andersen Air Force Base where 236 knot northwest winds had earlier been erroneously recorded. It is likely that the major tree falls and heaviest damage occurred over a 10-15 minute period. Island wide measurements of barometric pressure, using the Atkinson-Holliday wind-pressure relationship, could only support maximum sustained winds of 115 knots. In order to support the observed winds, the Kraft wind-pressure relationship used in the Atlantic had to be applied with the valid argument that the typhoon was a later season one with higher ambient environmental pressures. This study examines the meteorological factors associated Paka's passage over Guam, and specifically addresses the implications of the observed spin-up and spin-down and the observed relationship between wind and pressure to current intensity diagnostic techniques and the historical tropical cyclone intensity data bases

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology