During the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, there will be an increased emphasis on vertical observations using AVAPS-equipped USAF reconnaissance aircraft (deploying the new "GPS" high-resolution-data dropsondes). Additionally, large numbers of atmospheric measurements will be collected during CAMEX3 by NASA and NOAA AOC aircraft. This presents an unprecedented opportunity for post-data-collection analysis of an aspect of tropical cyclones that requires further study, that being possible thermodynamic triggers to convective bursts that are associated with rapid deepening episodes.
While some believe that variations in the vertical/horizontal moisture and temperature fields in the tropics are largely the RESULT rather than the cause of convection (ie: this is stated in the USAF TR-240 Tropical Weather Manual), there may be causal links that
need to be explored. Additionally, the role of radiative processes in the diurnal fluctuations of tropical convection has been studied but more work, specifically geared toward tropical cyclones, would be valuable.
Assembling the 3D thermodynamic structure of the environment in and around a tropical cyclone sampled duing CAMEX3, provides an opportunity to compare these detailed data sets with products that are produced daily by remote sensing (ie: water vapor imagery and WV/cloud drift winds and sounder data). Real-time, operationally
useful, modelling of temperature/moisture advection and CAPE variation, on the scale of mesoscale TC models, that might be able to predict the occurance of thermodynamically triggered convective bursts, would be an additional tool available to forecasters.
The NOAA WP-3, NASA DC-8, and ER-2, will all have instruments that enable remote, as well as in-situ, data collection. The NOAA GIV and USAF WC-130 (flying operational missions for the NHC) will be dropping more sondes in and around the storm environment than ever before. For those interested in temperature/moisture advection and incorporating it more effectively into TC models, it is a rare opportunity for comparing satellite-derived products with the seldom-available ground truth.
Considerable debate exists regarding the role of moisture advection in modulating the intensity of convection in cyclones such as Opal (1995). On USAF Reserve reconnaissance missions,sondes are released while proceeding to and from the storm at either 500 or 400 mb, as well as in the storm environment. These drops, performed for operational purposes, also will have great value in a post-collection study, especially since the high-density raw data will now be archived to a disk and is stored by a windows 95 operating system in easily read text files.