Verification statistics have historically been computed for meteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation, and winds and for weather warnings such as thunderstorms, tornados, or flash floods. In the past, however, forecasters have viewed these statistics as a method of grading forecaster performance and thus were reluctant to embrace them. Nevertheless, as they strive to improve the accuracy of predictions, forecasters recognize the critical need to track the performance of their own forecast products on a real-time basis.
On 18 November 1997, statistics were re-introduced into the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC) with the implementation of the FSL-developed Real-Time Verification System (RTVS). The purpose of this system is twofold: to provide a long-term tracking mechanism for all AWC forecast products, and to place a useful tool, to aid in the decision-making process, in the hands of the operational forecasters. For example, the RTVS provides an objective method for comparing and evaluating model-based guidance products as well as forecast products.
In this presentation, examples will be shown of how the RTVS can be used to benefit the operational forecast process at the AWC.
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology