The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

14A.1
AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF OCEAN FEEDBACK EFFECTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY

William D. Ramstrom, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

Recent theoretical and modeling studies suggest that storm-induced cooling of the ocean mixed layer is an important negative feedback on tropical cyclone intensity. These studies rely, however, on semi- empirical formulations of entrainment through the base of the mixed layer, formulations, which have not been tested under the extreme conditions encountered in mature storms. The modeling and theoretical studies do delineate, however, the important oceanic and atmospheric parameters that control the magnitude of the feedback. The most important of these parameters are the unperturbed ocean mixed layer depth, the unperturbed potential storm intensity, and the size and translation speed of the storm. Using best-track data sets, monthly potential intensity climatology and Levitus climatological ocean mixed layer properties, we attempt to find empirical relationships between the maximum intensity actually achieved by those storms whose intensity is not limited by encounters with land or cold water and the aforementioned parameters governing the magnitude of the ocean feedback effect. We will present results of a multi-variate linear regression analysis of ocean feedback on tropical cyclone intensity. We will also compare these results with those of a modeling study which provided expected storm intensity in a coupled system based on the temperature profile of the ocean and the storm parameters.

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology