The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

11A.5
A CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and R. E. Hart

As tropical cyclones move into higher latitudes, over colder water and into increasing wind shear, 45-55% transition from a tropical state to an extratropical state. A significant fraction of these storms impact densely populated areas of the globe, including northeastern North America, western Europe, and eastern Asia. These storms are commonly accompanied by flooding rains, widespread gale to storm force winds, and coastal erosion. Often the storms ransition; a significant fraction (30%) intensify. These intensifying post-transition storms represent the most dangerous of storms, since they are rapidly moving, exceedingly intense, and presently very difficult to predict. Most intriguing is that intensification commonly occurs in the absence of atmospheric baroclinicity or significant wind shear. This talk will examine in detail a 25-year climatology of transition in the Atlantic Ocean and provide the foundation upon which to discuss Hart (2).

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology