The Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Northwest Airlines (NWA) conducted a six week operational forecast experiment in the summer of 1998 which was designed to provide forecasts of thunderstorm locations detailed enough in time and space to be useful in real time aircraft route planning. Two, four, and six hour forecasts were made at the AWC at four times from mid morning to mid afternoon. These experimental forecasts were in addition to the operational Convective Sigmet products issued hourly. The experimental forecasts incorporated model data from the new ETA and RUC2 models, satellite, radar and lightning data. A new technique developed at the AWC for forecasting convective initiation based on the RUC2 was a primary guidance tool. These experimental forecasts were placed on the AWC Home Page and also ransmitted to NWA where they were adapted by a NWA meteorologist for use by dispatchers who incorporated them into their decision making process. Results and lessons learned will be presented.
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology