The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

15.7
VALIDATION OF SHORT TERM BATTLESCALE FORECAST MODEL FORECASTS WITH PROFILER AND UPPER AIR DATA COLLECTED OVER OKLAHOMA

P A. Haines, Army Research Lab, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and T. Henmi, R. E. Dumais, and D. I. Knapp

The Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM) consists of a 3-Dimensional Objective Analysis, an Initialization, and a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction component. The BFM is being tested to validate its capability to provide more accurate wind, temperature, and pressure information for use in artillery targeting.

For this study, the BFM was initialized with an objective analysis in which regular NWS upper air observations in and around Oklahoma were composited to the NOGAPS forecast. The predictive model component was then used to produce 12 hour forecasts over a model domain covering the western and central parts of Oklahoma. The model horizontal resolution used is 10 km with 41 grid points in both the west to east and south to north directions; in the vertical, 32 grid points are used with a stretched vertical spacing begining with 2 m above ground level to 11km. The BFM employs a hybrid vertical coordinate in order to better incorporate interactions between the atmosphere and terrain.

To validate the model's predictions, we have made a number of comparisons of short term (less than 6 hours here) forecasts of upper air wind and surface winds, temperatures, and pressures to upper air winds observed by the wind profiler network and to surface reports made by the Oklahoma surface mesonet. For the upper air comparisons, the results show that the BFM forecasts represent a significant improvement over a forecast based purely on NOGAPS. Furthermore, BFM wind forecasts are superior to persistence from at least the 2 hour point onwards. Similar results will be shown for the surface comparisons

The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology