The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

8C.10
INCORPORATION OF AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN A STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/TPC, Miami, FL; and F. M. Horsfall and E. N. Rappaport

SHIPS is a statistical-dynamical hurricane intensity forecast model that is run operationally at the National Hurricane Center. During the 1997 hurricane season, SHIPS had statistically significant forecast skill at 36-72 h for storms in the Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins. A limitation of SHIPS is that the predictions are based almost entirely upon the characteristics of the storm environment. The only input parameters related to the storm itself are the maximum wind at the beginning of the forecast period and the change in the maximum wind during the previous 12 h. Aircraft reconnaissance observations are usually available for storms in the Atlantic basin that are west of 55 deg. longitude. Previous studies have suggested that the structure of the flight level wind profiles near the storm center is correlated with subsequent intensity changes. Several storm structure parameters determined using reconnaissance data from 1995-1997 are combined with the environmental predictors used in SHIPS to evaluate the potential for increasing the skill of the intensity forecasts.

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology