The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

3A.2
ESTIMATES OF THE INHERENT AND PRACTICAL LIMITS OF PREDICTABILITY OF MEAN FORECAST TRACK ERRORS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. PART III

Robert F. Abbey, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie and G. J. Holland

This study is the third and final part of a program aimed at estimating both the intrinsic and practical (lower) limits to model forecast errors in tropical cyclone track prediction. The intrinsic limits exist because the model equations governing tropical cyclone motion are deterministically chaotic. In such a system, errors in the initial state or in the model formulation grow until they eventually remove all forecast skill. The first study used a barotropic model to assess how close an operational barotropic model was to the inherent predictability limits. The estimate arrived at was that, in practice, over the southwest and northwest Pacific basins, model forecast errors were about 45-50% higher than estimates of the inherent forecast errors. The second study extended the barotropic work to most of the tropical cyclone basins around the globe and found that there was little variation between basins. The second study also applied the methodology used in the first study to a state-of-the-art baroclinic model and for the same tropical cyclone basins. Not surprizingly it was found that the difference between the practical and inherent model forecast errors dropped significantly to 35-40% because of the greater skill of the baroclinic models. The present, third, study is considerably more complex and produces inherent model forecast errors that are considerably lower than those derived in the first two studies. The lower values resulted from two main sources. First, a wide range of new observing platforms has provided large quantities of additional data of much higher quality. These data have reduced errors in the specification of the initial state, especially the location and pressure of the center of the tropical cyclone but also a far superior specification of the environmental flow into which the tropical cyclone moves. Additionally, new data assimilation systems, initialization procedures and much higher resolutions have further reduced initial state errors. Second, current operational numerical models have become far more sophisticated over the period of the program. The two factors have combined to reduce the intrinsic error estimates by about 25% and the practical forecast errors by a somewhat larger value of about 30-35%. Finally, it was decided to extend the definition of the inherent limits of model forecast errors from the original purely deterministic models of the first two studies to include statistical-dynamical ensemble procedures developed by the authors in earlier tropical cyclone forecast studies. We note that care must be taken in using this procedure by ensuring that the forecast ensembles are derived in an optimal manner, with the requisite covariances calculated over many model realizations. The mean error of the ensemble of forecasts so produced is about 15% lower than estimates obtained using the original single dynamical forecast model approach

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology