The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

P7A.12
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE VORTICES

Kevin J E. Walsh, Aspendale, Australia; and J. J. Katzfey

A regional climate model (DARLAM) is implemented over the Australian region and a 20-year seasonally varying simulation is examined for the presence of tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLVs). The horizontal resolution of the model is 125 km with nine vertical levels, and is forced at its boundaries by the output of the CSIRO GCM using a mixed-layer (or "slab") ocean. The regional climate model DARLAM has a good simulation of both cyclogenesis and its seasonal variation under the current climate, once estimates are made of the impact of horizontal resolution on TCLV intensities. The response of the model under enhanced greenhouse conditions is studied. Under 2xCO2 conditions, there is no statistically significant change in regions of formation. Nevertheless, there are
statistically significant effects on the poleward movement of TCLVs, with storms generally tending to travel further south in a warmer climate once they have formed. An analysis is undertaken to determine the reasons for this behaviour. While the dynamical constraints on the maintenance of TCLV intensity under 2xCO2 conditions (e.g. vertical wind shear) are similar to those in the current climate, thermodynamic conditions are quite different, and are likely to be the cause of this effect.

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology